The Chessboard Is Set!

As I had been predicting for long, today, Asia looks like a stage perfectly set for another version of the great game.

The last two months have been peppered with small developments all over Asia that signal a significant undertones of the evolving great game.

China has been threatening Indian vessels - both naval and exploratory vessels operating in the South China Sea, off the Vietnamese coast, which is claimed by China as its own fiefdom, ignoring the rights of the littoral states that abut the sea. Vietnam and Philippines have also faced the brunt of Chinese aggression in the region. By that logic, the entire Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal is our area, and wouldn't it be sane to boot the Chinese from its upcoming bases and listening posts in Myanmar (Coco Islands) and Sri Lanka.

Another signal of capitulation was the American denial of advanced F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan - that is despite the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 which obligates the United States to provide weaponry for defence of Taiwan against the obvious aggressor. Instead the Americans dangled an offer to upgrade Taiwan's aging F-16 fleet. It appeared that the United States capitulated under Chinese pressure. Was there a quid-pro-quo - the United States gives up in return for Chinese economic support?

But then Japan, the United States, Australia and India revived the idea of a dialogue on regional security. It is understood from the press that India expressed its discomfort in participating in the dialogue given the mistrust that Australia had shown towards India by denying us uranium supplies. The Rudd doctrine seems to have been given the boot by Julia Gillard, in an unprecedented, but pragmatic move.

Australia because of its strong regional presence has an important role to play, India knows that and would be willing work alongside the Australians. The major irritant, uranium, would hopefully be dealt with, but public opinion in India could be a deciding factor, for there has been simmering anger over continued racist attacks against Indian diaspora in Australia.

But then baby steps are being taken and some military exercises are being planned.

Within India, not only in the north, but also in the south, there is a great public anxiety over the Chinese military build-up on the northern borders. The government has to get its act together to equip the forces in the north with infrastructure and armaments. We need fighter squadrons and mountain battalions in these regions. India, according to the defence journalist, Shiv Aroor, is likely to test fire the Agni V missile, with a range that covers the whole of China and beyond.

India off late has given the Chinese more than enough signals that we would not capitulate. Deepening ties with Vietnam have led to speculate that it emerge as "India's Pakistan" vis-a-vis China. I doubt that personally, but certainly we can work together in an alliance.

Defence buys from the United States are increasing. That without question, as history has proved, lays the foundation for military alliances.

The Chinese will certainly be irritated with the Americans and the Australians with the opening of the Darwin military base, one of America's biggest bases in the region. The first brick of the alliance has been laid.

China has economic and military might, but at the same time its conduct has made it appear demonic in the region, laying to rest all that talk about the "peaceful rise". If such conduct continues, Asian powers with the United States will coalesce into an Asian NATO. India should not shy away from partnering the United States, Australia, Japan, Vietnam and other powers here in the region, as Chinese provocation would not abate any time now. That was obvious when the Chinese Ambassador to New Delhi, Zhang Yan, asked an Indian journalist to shut up when being questioned about an inaccurate depiction of the Indo-Tibetan border. If the Chinese provocation continues, we do have the Tibetan card to play.

The next 15 years will, undoubtedly, be very interesting. The strategies will play out on this vast chessboard that stretches from the Red Sea to the Pacific. Its a big question as to who would checkmate whom!

But the big questions today are quite a few. Is the ostrich is finally taking its head out of the sand? Is finally India finally playing a strategic game or is it still making unconnected tactical moves?

Personalities of World Leaders -- Dissected!

In July this year, I had blogged about some world leaders and whether Mars was to be blamed for global political instability.
Today, when I was reading a story on Nicolas Sarkozy in The Economist, an interesting thought came to my mind.
Nicolas Sarkozy, Barack Obama and Julia Gillard, all three were not born in the nations they lord over now. They neither come from the dominant political classes of their respective countries, nor did they have privileged upbringings. I realised that their upbringings could have had a role in shaping their policies of today.
Nicolas Sarkozy was born to stateless-Hungarian soldier and French Catholic - Greek Jewish mother. He and his mother were abandoned by his father, and he was greatly influenced by Gaullist grandfather.
Is there little surprise that France appears to have turned xenophobic in the last few months, with the Sarkozy government banning the burkha and deporting the Romas?
Perhaps not. His Jewish roots and right-winger Gaullist philosophies seem to be at interplay whilst shaping French policies of today.
A statement allegedly attributed to Sarkozy clearly shows where these influences come from. It is claimed that he said "What made me who I am now is the sum of all the humiliations suffered during childhood".
The machiavellian Australian prime minister Julia Gillard, who had been titled "The Australian Horse Trader" by The Economist, was born in Wales but had to migrate to Australia as she had a medical condition.
Now the Welsh are considered a bit sly and stubborn. It is also said - Never cross a Celt they say ......they have long memories! (You may call them stereotypes!)
Little wonder, she ruthlessly engineered a political (bloodless!) coup by ousting Kevin Rudd. Then, she called for an early election, in which the Labour barely scraped through. Calling for early elections, for a brief while, seemed like an act of bravado, political hara-kiri in retrospect.
But the feisty Celt slyly bounced back. She finally engineered her ascent to prime ministership by extracting support from three independents and one Green. How she keeps the Greens happy is another question, especially when the contentious issue of mining taxes comes to the fore. Perhaps then we'll see another round of machiavellian maneuvers Down Under!
Welsh blood, eh?
And now Barack Obama. Born to a Muslim Kenyan and his white American mother, he does not, at all, fit the typical black American upbringing. His parents divorced when he was young. His father rarely maintained contact with Barack or his mother. It is said Barack met his father only once after his parents' divorce came through.
His mother then married an Indonesian, and they all moved to Indonesia, where Barack spent a considerable part of his childhood, before trotting around the globe.
Having a Muslim father and growing up in an Islamic country, naturally, seem to have reflected in his sympathetic policies towards Islamic countries. Remember his address in Cairo and his address to Iran on the occasion of Nowruz?
Also, his well-talked about idealistic concepts seem to come from his understanding of his father (or the lack of it?) and the world that he had seen, as a child, which are very, very un-American.
Does that explain why he does, what he does? Perhaps, yes, perhaps not!

All these leaders were not a part of the establishment. Each of them resorted to something unique to survive - Sarkozy to xenophobic policies, Gillard to machiavellianism and Obama to appeasement. Will they succeed with a world-view constrained by their past is a question only time will answer.
At home too, if the lives of our politicians were well documented, one could come up with interesting inferences, like the conclusions Meghnad Desai had drawn on Gandhi's personality and character, in his very-readable book, "The Rediscovery of India".
Will our politicians let a dissection of their personalities ever happen?