The Republic's Women Power...

It was after quite a few years that I watched the Republic Day parade today.

While the parade happened on a dull, rainy morning (indeed a bright, sunny morning would have been ideal for the riot of colour), the only facts that made me stick was the symbolism and its far- reaching implications for the Republic, positive ones, certainly.

The thing began yesterday when Wing Commander Pooja Thakur gave President Obama a guard of honour.

Then today, contingents of the three armed forces included women officers leading the way. Women mountaineers from the Indian Army, women sailors from the Indian Navy who sailed from Goa to Rio de Janeiro showcased their achievements.

The women soldiers marched as equals with their male counterparts, they marched with their heads held high. They were confident and undoubtedly proud of their achievements. And service to the Republic was the undertone of the pomp and pageantry.

As I saw the parade progress, I had little doubt that this display of women-power matching the fire-power would have inspired countless little girls around the nation - in the jungles of Jharkhand, the hills of Kumaon, tea gardens of the North East, dunes of the Thar, mustard fields of Punjab and the temple towns of the South. They would be having a twinkle in their in their eyes, right now, their minds racing with dreams of growing up as equals and following the footsteps of the women soldiers on Rajpath today. They would be pestering their parents that they would want to join the armed forces. 

That in my view is inspirational for an entire generation and indeed more cost effective than any budgetary programme worth its salt. The parade also showcased India as a progressive nation of equals.

Indeed this was Prime Minister Modi's masterstroke.

I still have one regret - the fly pasts of the C-17 Globemaster, the C-130 Hercules, the Poseidon P8 and the Sukhoi Su30 MKi were not as impressive because of the dense cloud-cover, that broke my heart... 

Back To School....

After exploring the treasures of Chinatown yesterday, I got a call from an old friend, a college junior, who is working in Singapore - he contacted me after he saw my checkin at Changi Airport when I landed here earlier this week. 

I met him at Costa Coffee at Raffles Place. It was exciting meeting him after nearly 15 years, I guess I met him last at my convocation in Chandigarh. Thereafter, thanks to the much reviled social media, Facebook, we got connected, again, a few years back...

We recounted the exciting times we spent at Chandigarh over a cup of coffee. After spending an exciting hour and a half, it was time to head back - my friend had to head back to Changi, where he lives with his family, two sweet little kids whose photos I had seen on Facebook. I was hoping to get a call from Neeti, who was to get free last night - apparently her classes went on till late, so I headed to her campus this morning.

When I work up this morning, I was quite excited - I was meeting Neeti after over a week, a week that was quite long. While I enjoyed my gallivanting around Singapore over the last few day quite a lot, it wasn't half as fun without her...

Today is the day when we catch up... 

The morning skies were overcast - I prayed for no rain today....

Catching up with yesterday's Straits Times which hailed Modi as a reformer.

It appeared Modi created quite an impression in Singapore.

Jokowi, the president-elect of Indonesia somehow bears an uncanny resemblance to Obama - separated at birth, are they?

I stepped out of my hotel to head to Balestier Market for breakfast. The skies had cleared up, and it was a crisp, sunny morning.... just the kinds I love....

Kaya-toast, soft boiled eggs and kopi-c - a nice way to kickstart the day at the kopitiam at Balestier Road....

The bitter sweet nectar that is kopi-c - man, this truly is the elixir of life, errr, early mornings at least...

From the Balestier Market, I walked down to Novena MRT....

Passing by condominiums was interesting - people stepping out for exercise, jogging, grocery shopping...

The national flag was prominently displayed outside many buildings - the National Day was just a few days back...

That's Balestier Road - the road at the T-junction - a place I call "home" in Singapore...

I didn't expect to see this - garbage on the streets on Singapore? Surprising...

The walk to Novena was nice....

I quite liked this building...

I was very upset and ashamed when I saw the Novena Medical Center - this is where our Nirbhaya, India's daughter, was brought for treatment and sadly she passed away...

Hopefully, the Modi government will prioritise the "right"education for our young men to ensure such heinous crimes against women don't take place...

At Novena, I picked up this newspaper which was quite appreciative of Modi's Independence Day speech at the Red Fort...

However, coverage of Modi's speech in the Straits Times was a little more scathing...

It was obvious that Singapore expects a lot more from the new Modi administration... and the island-nation has been watching India very carefully...

But, the Independence Day speech mainly caters to a domestic Indian audience, for whom investor attractiveness means little. Knowing Modi's style, I am sure he does have a few aces up his short kurta sleeves, for investors abroad, including Singapore...

The One-North MRT had an interesting artwork...

And I finally reached Neeti's campus...

She gave me a guided tour and introduced me to her frends here...

Wow, I wished I could ge back to campus and recharge my brain...

The fountain of knowledge springs eternal...

Did Geronimo Have a Cadillac?

The other day, the world's most wanted man, Osama bin Laden was smoked out from his "rat hole" and hunted down by the US Navy Seals in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in an operation called "Operation Neptune's Spear", "Jackpot" being Osama's code while "Geronimo" was Osama's code in death!
Now that rang a bell - yes, there was a Modern Talking song called Geronimo's Cadillac - a popular song that reminded me of the heady 1980's! But the Geronimo of today's world is not about innocence of the 1980's, not about Cadillacs in any case!
While there is little doubt that the very thought of Osama bin Laden had terrorised the world for a little over than a decade now and he ought to have been brought to justice, Operation Neptune's Spear leads us to ask a number of unanswered questions.

Did the Operation Neptune's Spear really take place or was it another "wagging the dog" incident? That was the first thought that came to my mind when I read about the operation.
Questions on the complicity and competence of the Pakistani Army and the ISI were raised following the incident. I believe this was a grand show put up by both the United States and Pakistan. It is plausible that while the United States had been on the trail of Osama, Pakistan ensured that the "strategic asset" lived on safely, despite his kidney condition, in an army garrison town, with above-par medical facilities, and also ensured the "strategic asset" was fattened and kept ready for the slaughter.
The timing of the operation itself was a big give-away - the United States government barely averted a shutdown as the Grand Old Party and the Democrats clashed over the Budget and Obama's popularity waning.
With elections coming up in 2012, Obama needed to show some action, he needed to prove he was at least as muscular as Dubya Bush.
So, as Obama announced he is to run for the 2012 election, the Seals took off from Jalalabad, the Pakistanis turned off their radars, the Pakistani soldiers in the garrison went off into a deep slumber (or, were they "drugged"?) while the bombing was happening. And finally the Seals flashed the message - Geronimo EKIA.
It suits Pakistanis to feign ignorance now and put up a rant against the United States, while Obama walks with the "dubious claim" of eliminating terror!
Osama was terror, but terror is not Osama alone. So the myth that the world is a safer place now may soon be shattered as al-Qaeda is still not eliminated, it may live on despite Obama's feat, and would threaten the world again to prove that they are a potent force. That does not augur well for the world.
We cannot harbour unrealistic expectations today, rather have to be pragmatic today. India has tried to ride this wave and has demanded action that others on the wanted list be handed over. Pakistan will never mend its ways - you cannot teach an old dog new tricks. There is no incentive for the United States to fight for India. We cannot attack a nuclear adversary, so we go covert - fund and arm the Baluchis and Sindhis, get them to eliminate the Pakistanis on our most wanted list and also to break Pakistan from within.
Now coming back to the Geronimo story - Geronimo was a native Indian leader in the 1800s who opposed American expansionism into Apache lands, got taken as a prisoner of war, his terms of surrender were not honoured and died in 1909. It is ironic that the United States which grew on the back of expansionism and elimination of natives today preaches the world on terror.
Obama (or Geronimo) has gone, but did he have Cadillac? He sure did have a SUV fleet in Abbottabad!

Opening Retail - The Multiplier Effect

Much had been spoken about the opening of the retail sector in India in the context of President Obama's recent visit of India.
There has been a lot of speculation on the opening of the sector and whether there has been a quid pro quo with the United States on doling out defence deals and broad agreements on geopolitical issues in return for India easing restrictions on entry of the so-called big retail.
I believe that is the case. Gradually, the controls will be eased, just as what happened in the insurance sector.
But opening of retail has been a political hot potato. The communists oppose it in the name of ideology while elements on the centre and right oppose it simply because the Marwaris and Banias form their support base and have always been a source of their funding. These communities have been in the trade for centuries.
Let's put it simply - there is a reluctance to challenge the present paradigm.
Big retail will seek to achieve economies of scale not only on the consumer end but also on the sourcing side. That would necessitate bulk sourcing which would also translate into some element of discounting for the end consumer.
In short, the consumer would benefit from the lower prices and also a wider range that the neighbourhood bania cannot offer.
Opening retail would bring with it a whole host of opportunities for the not so well educated youth. Organised retail will hire big time for logistics, sourcing, security and manning the stores. And the youth will have a grand opportunity to pick up some skills and who knows, some opportunities for entrepreneurship in the future.
Vendors will have an opportunity to directly sell to the retail chains bypassing middlemen.
Organised retail has to develop and evolve logistics solutions including cold chain solutions to ensure fresh produce reaches the markets. This would trigger the much n investments in logistics solutions, warehousing, transportation, repair and maintenance which would lead to entrepreneurship opportunities.
Clearly opening of retail has multiplier effects on the economy.
But does this mean that it would be the end of the road for small retail?
Certainly not!
Models of hub and spoke in retail trade, involving, say a Walmart and a network of neighbourhood retailers can be thought of. That way it is a win-win for all. Traditional retailers stay in business while Walmart increases its footprint.
In short, opening retail should not be a political hot potato. Instead, it would have multiplier effects on India's GDP, in the long term.

Do 50,000 jobs today, matter?

This was so familiar.
During his visit to India, President Obama behaved like a super smart, manipulative college lass who uses the boys who swoon over her to her advantage, get them to do her homework, assignments, etc.
It is indeed true that Manmohan Singh swoons over America. Indians do admire the United States.
So his speech in the Central Hall of Parliament which was liberally peppered with references to our mythology, freedom struggle, Gandhi, Ambedkar, Chandni Chowk and a lot more was meant to sound like music to Indian ears.
The references to India's emergence as a great power were tailor-made to sweet talk India into doling out business deals.
That seems to have worked very well for Obama. Besides the deals signed by SpiceJet and Reliance Power, the press had been receiving selective leaks suggesting that POTUS' sales trip was immensely successful.
A blog on Indian defence, LiveFist, authored by a well-informed defence journalist, Shiv Aroor, recently reported that the Indian Air Force is buying an additional six C130J Super Hercules transport aircraft.
Instead of the publicly announced order for 10 C-17 Globemaster III aircraft, the Indian Air Force may just end up ordering 17. Similarly, the Indian Navy could order a few more Boeing P-8I Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft.
The bottomline is that we have gifted the United States over 50,000 jobs. The salesman-in-chief, POTUS, would now expect a reasonable bonus, read: a re-election!
But 50,000 jobs do not matter for India, neither do 100,000 jobs, or for that matter 1,000,000 jobs.
What matters is whether we are able to extract the right leverage from the United States.
It is certainly true that Obama's long-winded sales spiel in Parliament does not mean anything for India. We do not need his stamp of approval to get into the United Nations Security Council. We cannot rely on the United States to solve our regional security issues, afterall the United States is no headmaster to punish an errant Pakistan. It's our job to teach the Pakistanis a lesson.
How we would get the right leverage in the United States is clear. The United States has been asking Indian corporates for investment, which was explicit in the recent visit of President Obama.

It would not matter much for India if Mr. Ratan Tata would get Jaguar Land Rover to set up a plant in Detroit or Mr. Mukesh Ambani setting up a refinery on the Gulf of Mexico.
Increased corporate investments would lead to increased transfer of technology and know how. That also has an unintended but useful consequence in the form of penetration of lobbies in Washington. Undoubtedly lobbies help, Israel has shown that well. That is the leverage we need - the ability to influence policy when so desired. That should be the strategic objective.
That means we are in it for the long haul. So 50,000 or 100,000 or even 1,000,000 jobs do not, do not matter at all in the immediate future.

Salesman of the Year - POTUS!

The POTUS landed here today. And the POTUS came along with the FLOTUS.

I am not talking about any spacecraft. I am talking about the President of the United States and the First Lady of the United States.

Just before 1 PM, the Air Force One touched down at CSI Airport, with the salesman of the year, Barack Obama.

It appears after the Republican Tea Party routed him in the American mid-terms, he has no option but to show some action.

What better way than to fly down to the new El Dorado, India, selling his wares and contemplate the defeat by the Tea Party over a warm cup of tea at the Taj Mahal Hotel! (The Taj does serve very good tea, my personal favourite is Assam tea, though, I am told Darjeeling is equally good!)

Let's accept it, that the American economy is on a downslide. That's what cost him a mid-term.

Today, Obama has no option but to become a roving salesman for America Inc.

He does not love India the way Dubya Bush did (that was a mutual love affair!!! I miss Dubya a lot when it comes to United States - India relations!), but it is money, it is business that speaks.

China will not import volumes from the United States. Europe is half-dead economically. The rest of the word has insignificantly small long term potential. That leaves only India in the reckoning. If business with India increases, so will jobs in the United States. That is what forces him lift curbs on transfer of dual-use technologies to India. That's what prompts him to make a pitch for hi-tech exports, nuclear technology, defence deals, aircrafts and you name it, its on sale!!!

It is a game, we need to play it well to get the best from the United States. We have to make the United States dependent on exports to India to force them into a strategic partnership, that helps us stand up as a counterweight to China's quest for dominance in Asia as well as quelling Islamic extremism.

POTUS' visit rings a bell - remember when Bill Clinton was forced to write back sanctions on China for economic reasons?

So far, salesman POTUS has done a decent job, now it is turn. But without doubt, POTUS is the salesman of the year, he wins the award hands down.

Personalities of World Leaders -- Dissected!

In July this year, I had blogged about some world leaders and whether Mars was to be blamed for global political instability.
Today, when I was reading a story on Nicolas Sarkozy in The Economist, an interesting thought came to my mind.
Nicolas Sarkozy, Barack Obama and Julia Gillard, all three were not born in the nations they lord over now. They neither come from the dominant political classes of their respective countries, nor did they have privileged upbringings. I realised that their upbringings could have had a role in shaping their policies of today.
Nicolas Sarkozy was born to stateless-Hungarian soldier and French Catholic - Greek Jewish mother. He and his mother were abandoned by his father, and he was greatly influenced by Gaullist grandfather.
Is there little surprise that France appears to have turned xenophobic in the last few months, with the Sarkozy government banning the burkha and deporting the Romas?
Perhaps not. His Jewish roots and right-winger Gaullist philosophies seem to be at interplay whilst shaping French policies of today.
A statement allegedly attributed to Sarkozy clearly shows where these influences come from. It is claimed that he said "What made me who I am now is the sum of all the humiliations suffered during childhood".
The machiavellian Australian prime minister Julia Gillard, who had been titled "The Australian Horse Trader" by The Economist, was born in Wales but had to migrate to Australia as she had a medical condition.
Now the Welsh are considered a bit sly and stubborn. It is also said - Never cross a Celt they say ......they have long memories! (You may call them stereotypes!)
Little wonder, she ruthlessly engineered a political (bloodless!) coup by ousting Kevin Rudd. Then, she called for an early election, in which the Labour barely scraped through. Calling for early elections, for a brief while, seemed like an act of bravado, political hara-kiri in retrospect.
But the feisty Celt slyly bounced back. She finally engineered her ascent to prime ministership by extracting support from three independents and one Green. How she keeps the Greens happy is another question, especially when the contentious issue of mining taxes comes to the fore. Perhaps then we'll see another round of machiavellian maneuvers Down Under!
Welsh blood, eh?
And now Barack Obama. Born to a Muslim Kenyan and his white American mother, he does not, at all, fit the typical black American upbringing. His parents divorced when he was young. His father rarely maintained contact with Barack or his mother. It is said Barack met his father only once after his parents' divorce came through.
His mother then married an Indonesian, and they all moved to Indonesia, where Barack spent a considerable part of his childhood, before trotting around the globe.
Having a Muslim father and growing up in an Islamic country, naturally, seem to have reflected in his sympathetic policies towards Islamic countries. Remember his address in Cairo and his address to Iran on the occasion of Nowruz?
Also, his well-talked about idealistic concepts seem to come from his understanding of his father (or the lack of it?) and the world that he had seen, as a child, which are very, very un-American.
Does that explain why he does, what he does? Perhaps, yes, perhaps not!

All these leaders were not a part of the establishment. Each of them resorted to something unique to survive - Sarkozy to xenophobic policies, Gillard to machiavellianism and Obama to appeasement. Will they succeed with a world-view constrained by their past is a question only time will answer.
At home too, if the lives of our politicians were well documented, one could come up with interesting inferences, like the conclusions Meghnad Desai had drawn on Gandhi's personality and character, in his very-readable book, "The Rediscovery of India".
Will our politicians let a dissection of their personalities ever happen?

Global Political Instability - Is Mars to be Blamed?

It seems we are living in crazy times.
Is it a mere coincidence that some of the biggest (or rather surprising) victors of the war of the ballot, the world over, are today down in the dumps.
Let's begin with India. Manmohan Singh was my personal favourite to lead India in last year's general elections, especially after he championed the nuclear deal and did some plain speak on the pit of hell, Pakistan. But then, after his surprise re-election, he bungled on Baluchistan, at Sharm-el-Sheikh, lost his way on inflation and his cabinet ministers today look like squabbling toddlers. Post the Sharm-el-Sheikh fiasco, Manmohan Singh looked like a guy who was very unsure of himself, extremely under confident. This is leading from one personal failure to another - talks with Pakistan being a very big, big mistake.
Barack Obama stormed into office in early 2009 riding high on a popularity wave. Well intentioned he is, I don't doubt that a bit, but his presidency is characterised by long winding spiels (they get you the Nobel Peace Prize, don't they?) with little action to follow. Within the United States, he did have a few successes on healthcare and financial regulation, but he somehow has a confused policy on Iraq and the Af-Pak region. He has tried appease the rogues of the world - China, Pakistan, North Korea, while rubbing allies like Israel and India the wrong way. Little wonder that his popularity has evaporated and approval ratings have sunk to 49% today. And the Wikileaks episode surely does not help. And now news is coming in that the Republicans are gaining ground, surely.
Nicolas Sarkozy crushed Ségolène Royal but the latest corruption scandal involving illegal election funding from the heiress of L'Oreal, Liliane Bettencourt does not help matters. His differences with Angela Merkel on the economic revival of Europe threaten the stability of the European Union. Virility with Carla Bruni is one thing, but sustaining credibility is a different ball game altogether. Hope Sarkozy realises that!
Japan's Yukio Hatoyama lead the DPJ to a decisive victory over the LDP (Indians could liken the LDP to the Congress of Japan, with over 54 years of rule?), but he too lost his way with financial scandals and his inability to keep the promise of closing an American military base in Okinawa. His unpopularity forced the DPJ to ask him to step down.
The land Down Under, Australia, isn't immune to the contagion. Kevin Rudd who was known for his infamous "orgasm with China" speech should have known orgasms do not last long, the same holds true for popularity. His popularity dipped considerably on a climate change legislation and the proposal to tax super-normal profits from mineral extraction. He ultimately had to be eased out only to be replaced by Wales born Julia Gillard, in what was called a bloodless coup by the press. It is believed that after his resignation, Rudd wept on ABC Radio. What an abrupt end to his orgasm!

What is it that is going wrong?

Perhaps, it is something as freakish as what astrology buffs in India would say - Mars has entered their planetary charts? or "कुंडली में मंगल प्रवेश कर चूका है!!!!!"

However freakish it may be, it is surely quite unsettling to see a grand political instability at the world stage.

A Hundred Bhopals?

I knew this hullabaloo would die as fast as it was raked up.
Less than a month back, when the courts announced their verdict on the Bhopal gas tragedy, there was a great deal of public anger on what had (not) happened and why.
The media played a grand role in whipping up passions.
For nearly two weeks, all we heard were views and discussions on the matter ad nauseum. There were demands for extradition of Warren Anderson, the then head of Union Carbide in India, etc. etc.
It beats all logic to get Warren Anderson extradited. What punishment can a court mete out to a senile 90-year old? If at all a conviction is carried out, won't it be as bad as justice denied?
Another raging controversy is British Petroleum's Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The spill threatens the fragile ecosystem of the Gulf, but did not claim thousand's of lives.
The Obama administration's response was swift and brutal.
British Petroleum has been forced to escrow USD 20 billion as a spill response fund to deal with the ecological disaster that adversely impacts the marine life and the fishing industry. The fallout could be fatal for British Petroleum - it has been forced to sell its oil fields in Alaska and itself could be bought out by Exxon-Mobil.
Compare this with the pittance of a compensation thrown out to the victims of the Bhopal tragedy.
Perhaps, the life of each fish or bird or shrimp in the Gulf of mexico is more valuable than that of each human victim in Bhopal.
Such is the irony.
Had a disaster of half the magnitude of Bhopal happened in China, the United States would have been forced to pay up.
The blame lies with our politicians of 1984 and those of today. Despite prolonged suffering of our people, Manmohan Singh did not do any tough talking with Obama on Bhopal.
Just today, there was a leakage of chlorine into the atmosphere in Sewri, Bombay. Over a hundred people had to be hospitalised.
How can hazardous industry be allowed to operate within municipal limits in a megapolis like Bombay. I know for a fact Delhi and Calcutta are no different.
Perhaps, a hundred Bhopals are waiting to happen and our government will again be caught napping.

Hoping on the Fourth of July!!!!

Today is the Fourth of July, the day when America celebrates its independence day!
This was the day the hope for the modern world was born, way back in 1776 - hope that self-determination is achievable, hope that colonial hegemony cannot survive for long.
As the CNN talks about the Fourth of July weekend being celebrated in America today, I am reminded of the book on American history that inspired me a great deal - the struggle that culminated in the Declaration of Independence in 1776, the ideals of the founding fathers, the principles upheld during the American civil war, the territorial expansion of the fledgling country of 13 states to the acquisition of Louisiana from France and Alaska from Russia to expansion to California and Hawaii, which resulted in the 50 states that we know of today, the spirit of free enterprise and entrepreneurship, etc. etc.

All these were the very concepts and ideals that catapulted America to a leadership position on the world centerstage, taking over from imperialistic Europe.
America achieved a great deal within 250 years of its existence, something that took Britain over 600 years to achieve and lose it all. In fact such had been the decay of Britain's power that a few years back, Tony Blair was once called Clinton's poodle.
But in the last 2-3 years, America seems to have undermined its own cause to such an extent that it is quite probable that would end up as China's poodle in the next few years. Already America lives on Chinese debt and the Chinese dictate terms to the America.
Obama promised to be a breath of fresh air, but we can now smell is bad breath all around. This regime has been marked by failures of policies in Afghanistan and Iraq. The administration has developed a reputation for sucking up to oppressive regimes in the Middle East, Burma, Iran and North Korea, while ignoring strategic partnerships with Israel and India.
Columnists in various publications - the world over, in India, Israel and America as well - the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal have often lamented the lack of vision.
So, on this Fourth of July, I can only hope that America gets its act together for a second run on the world stage, recognising its strengths and partnerships and by not canoodling with rogues of this world!!!

Obama - India's Worst Nightmare.....

I have never been a fan of Obama.

In the past, I had expressed my apprehensions about Obama's policies in the sub-continent and more particularly towards India.

For me, Obama was like Old Wine in a New Bottle.

Undoubtedly so.

Pakistan was the hotbed of the ideology that gave birth to the 9/11 tragedy, and still is for God knows what next. That is perhaps why the former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright called Pakistan a global migraine.

Pakistan is like the school kid, a bully, who wields a stick and behaves in the most churlish, silly and unbecoming manner, harassing other diligent kids.

And Obama is like the teacher who is absolutely unable to contain the kid. He lives in the hope that rewarding the rotten kid would lead to and encourage better behaviour.

How naive can Obama get?

He is also getting ready to reward Pakistan with F-16s and God knows what. On one hand Obama claims to be custodian of democracy, but invites General Kayani for a strategic dialogue to Pakistan. Is that the right signal to send?

And then America blows hot and cold on taking relations with India to the next level.

Obama has to realise that no matter what he does for Pakistan, it will be an exercise in futility. Obama's own officials feel that Pakistan does not view America favourably.

On the other hand India and America, in general, share the same values on the world, economy and democracy. That is something that America will not appreciate till it is hit by next spectacular attack emanating from the jehadi madrassas of Pakistan.

Till then, Obama will be India's Worst Nightmare..... and we will miss Dubya.....

Obama and India

Our Prime Minister is visiting Washington, and it seems to be a very big deal.
He would be Obama’s first state guest and it’s been made out to be a very big deal.
What is India going to achieve from this visit?
The excitement of the nuclear deal is dead now. The United States is getting ready to deny India 11 out of 15 dual use technologies. There will be pressure on us for signing the CTBT and NPT. (Why should we be shy of signing the NPT? We are overtly nuclear. We are not going to proliferate. Let’s sign. The CTBT is a different question.)
We have been caught sleeping when the Chinese and Obama have carved up the world (or Asia) between themselves. (China has reportedly asked the United States to let it control the Indian Ocean.)
Obama has given a de-facto policeman status to China on the world stage.
He knows the United States cannot live without debt from the Chinese.
Obama wants to get out of Afghanistan at the earliest. Who would fill in the vacuum? Obviously, the Chinese and the Pakistanis would oblige.
Obama has been steadily releasing Guantanamo inmates since he assumed office and has vowed to close the prison by early 2010. It obvious the released detainees will head for the hotspots – Afghanistan, Pakistan and yes, India (don’t be surprised – there had been reports jehadi Uighurs being detained in Kashmir).
All this is very bad news for India. And Obama is turning out to be India’s worst nightmare today – we should award him the Nobel Prize for War, for his actions would destabilize Asia more than we could even imagine, eventually pushing us to the brink of the next world war.
Obviously our external affairs ministry and its diplomats were napping, or were rather excitedly preparing for the pomp and pageantry that goes into a State Dinner at the White House.
It’s high time we saw through all this and had a foreign policy.

Air Force One, Singh is King, etc. etc.

Air Force One is here. During an interview to CNBC earlier this week, Obama was pursued by a persistent fly. Obama reached out and swatted the fly. Fly swatting is fine, but what about swatting out the Taliban and the al Qaeda from their cave hideouts in Af-Pak? How the hell can he do that when he coolly lets out terror suspects from Guantanamo Bay into exotic locales like Bermuda, as The New York Times reported earlier this week? Perhaps, he thinks these guys deserve a paid vacation, right?



Our Prime Minister is truly a King. Without battling an eyelid, he told Zardari that terror from Pakistan has to stop. Finally someone from India had the guts to do it. Zardari apparently is so pissed off that he has decided to give the NAM summit a miss. That is what has to be done. The Prime Minister has again proved that Singh is indeed King..... But there will challenges ahead and best wishes to him to tackle the challenges that he would face ahead.

I was saddened by the off-colour jokes that our FM channels have been playing about Shiney Ahuja allegedly raping his servant. Whether it's true or not, I am not going to debate that. Rape is indeed an heinous crime, but till the accused has been proven guilty, he remains an accused. Who has thought of the trauma that the families of both the accused and the victim would be facing now? But the media in a grave display of insensitivity goes on and on ad-nauseum.

Old Wine, New Bottle...

I have never been a fan of Obama.
My status messages on Facebook during the US elections, a couple of months where I had expressed my concerns on Obama and his policies attracted a lot of attention, and of course angry criticism from friends.
I had often argued, with these people that Obama is too much of an idealist. He seems to to be far detached from reality. He is undoubtedly a great orator, but there's more it than making good speeches.
He started off by projecting that America under him will be different for the rest of the world. but he's falling into a trap that the United States has been falling into for the last 2-3 odd decades. Pakistan continues to blackmail and coax the United States in funding their nefarious and sinister activities.
Obama started off on a "moral" high-ground by wowing to shut down Guantamano Bay, or Gitmo as it is often called, where suspected 9/11 detainees and other hard-core Islamic terrorists had been held. If hard-core terrorists are to be released, isn't the United States shooting itself in the foot? It was also reported that a released Gitmo detainee found his way back to Pakistan, preaching militant Jihad.
Obama also proposed to shift these detainees to high security prisons within the United States which led to a virulent reaction within the country. Quite a few states refused to accept these detainees. There was nasty debate within the political system, between Dick Cheney on the Republican side and the democrats on the other.
And now, in an article titled "Palau to Take Chinese Guantánamo Detainees", The New York Times reports that a Pacific island archipelago nation, Palau has agreed to accept the Gitmo detainees. Who is going to guarantee the security of these prisons? Does Palau have the wherewithal to do that? What prevents al-Qaeda from getting these detainees freed? If that happens, who'll suffer?
The obvious answer is the United States.
Obama has long advocated transparency in methods adopted to deal with terror suspects. He declassified CIA documents but then turned around and refused release photographic evidence of abuse. So much for transparency, Obama has also been called President Flip-Flop by, again, The New York Times. Other examples of his flip-flop on gay rights, abortion, etc. have also been well documented.




Obama reached out to Iran, in a speech on Navroze. Obama reached out to the Muslim world in Cairo a few days ago. But he has to understand that symbolism of beginning speeches with Asalaam Waleikum and talking of his Muslim heritage is not good enough. He has to understand that well-researched speeches are not good enough. He has to understand Hot-Dog Diplomacy is not enough.
Obama needs to go high on substance. He needs to go high on action. He needs to separate the wheat from the chaff in Muslim world. he needs to know whom to back in the military world. Is he doing a great job by backing despots in Pakistan, Iraq, etc.?




North Korea tested a nuclear warhead a few days back. That was met by muted, whimper of reaction from the United States. Why? Wasn't Obama supposed to take a stand from a morally high ground? The answer is simple. A reaction against North Korea would have invited a swift and brutal reaction from the Chinese. Wasn't Obama scared of that?
Obama's weaknesses and abilities have been very well understood by the Americans in general. No wonder, the Wall Street Journal has been talking of Obama's plummeting popularity ratings, which is regarded as measure of the Administration's success.
As far as India is concerned, Obama is yet to find the true co-ordinates. By the time, he figures out what India is, a good 2-3 years of Administration would have gone by. By then, Obama would have lost considerable leverage in India.
Obama promised America, and the world, a whiff of fresh air, but sadly, what we've got is stale Old Wine in a New Bottle...

India's new neighbour - Talibanistan

As we thought we had enough shocks for 2009, another one strikes, though not quite out of the blue.

The Doomsday Scenario is playing out - today, Amritsar is geographically closer to the Taliban than Delhi. Yes, its true, the Taliban are inching closer to the Indian frontier, by taking control of Pakistani territory, inch by inch. And sooner than we expect, we would have to deal with the Taliban. And soon, we will have a new neighbour to deal with, to add to our list of painful neighbours - Talibanistan!

Our options are limited as a country. We are being pushed into a corner - the way Israel has existed for the last 60-odd years.

What do we do? Talk to the Pakistanis? Will it help? No, not at all. When Zardari said he expects Taliban to take control of the country any time soon, it is evident, he controls nothing but his presidential palace. There is no point in talking to him.

What about the Americans? Obama has spoken about eliminating Al-Qaeda, focusing on Af-Pak, etc. etc. But given the economic situation prevailing in the US, it might be tempting for Obama to cut spends by moving forces out of Af-Pak. We can't bank on the US to be on our side, given the poor economics of their presence in Af-Pak.

Our options are limited - we have to deal with this menace ourselves. After taking over Pakistan, the Taliban will turn their eyes on India for sure. And that's real bad. That really would the first real threat that India would face since its independence for the Taliban threatens the Indian way of life, our free speech, our economic independence. And we can't let it happen.

We need to boost our defences all along the Western borders - that is obvious. But more importantly, we have to break the enemy from within. For that, our intelligence has to break in to the Taliban to understand their plans better. Then we would need to deflect their attention from our borders. We should attempt to build resistance within Pakistan against the Taliban. The Baluchis and the Sindhis are certainly are not pleased with the Punjabi-Pashtun nexus and are likely to play ball against the Taliban.

All along I had my reservations on the way successive governments in Delhi had handled Pakistan. But Manmohan Singh's A-team of Chidambaram and Pranab has proven that they have the will not only to talk tough but also act. I hope they have the threat that Talibanistan poses to India in their minds and they act on it.

Will Obama rise to the challenge?

Hail Obama! The new president has been elected!

Obama has laid out his priorities very clearly - cleanse America of all its ills.

He has been riding a strong wave of popularity. And popularity brings with it a huge amount of expectations. And when the expectations are the highest, chances of under-performance are the highest, because there is and there always will be a big gap between the perceived expectation and the actual expectation on the street. Will he match the actual expectations and deliver is the big question... This gap is biggest cause of declining popularity of most rulers.

Obama has not had any administrative experience so far. And for being the head of state of any country - be it the United States or the Republic of Vanuatu, prior administrative experience is an absolute plus and a certain desirable. Obama does not have that at all.

And in politics, entrenched affiliations give the necessary leverage to take decisions that may often be unpleasant. Does Obama have that clout? I doubt it...

To make up for his administrative and political deficit, Obama is planning to appoint Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State. Hillary is a power-person in her own right. Will she ever accept Obama's authority? Won't she be tempted to create a power center of her own, undermining Obama's agenda?

And then measures to alleviate the economic pain may not be too pleasant for US conglomerates, which have entrenched lobbyists at the Capitol Hill. Won't these lobbies undermine his administrative actions?

And we can't ignore the most powerful industry of the United States - the war industry!!! Won't the armanent and defence industry oppose any move out of Iraq. Similarly, energy firms which have landed lucrative oil and gas contracts in Iraqi Kurdistan, will go all out to protect their turf.

Obama may be thinking right. But thinking and talking about the right thing and doing the right thing are two very different matters. And whether he would be able to maintain his popularity and survive as a successful President is the biggest doubt I have.

But for me, I will always miss Bush for his Bushisms and his unflinching support for the Indian nuclear deal. I doubt whether Obama could have pulled it off at all.

Would Mr. Obama perform? Let's answer this question, let's say, in an year's time...

Random thoughts and a few unanswered questions...

1. South Africa in turmoil again - the revered statesmanly South African President Thabo Mbeki is making way for the strident, radical Jacob Zuma. Is the Rainbow Nation going the Zimbabwe way?
2. Blasts in Islamabad - you reap what you sow. Will they will ever learn this lesson?
3. Terror in India - the limp, soft state probably thinks this is an answer to our population woes, is that right?
4. Obama v/s the Republicans - the journalists are best at sensationalising what they hear. Was the comment "putting lipstick on a pig" a sexist remark after all?
5. The Fed is bailing out Wall Street with a US$ 700 bn package - is capitalism dead as we know it? Or is it a return to socialism - state support and intervention?