15 Trends For 2015... तथास्तु Tathastu!

"Get your hopes up.

Raise your expectations.

Your best days are still in front of you"

-- Joel Osteen

A new year has dawned on us. 2015 is finally here, and I am attempting to play soothsayer. 

I am attempting to predict the trends that will define India and the world in 2015 and beyond...

1. India will start getting a lot more homogenised from now on. Regional differences will fade away as a relic of the past, as India will unite in a new dawn of economic prosperity. Other cultural aspects like Bollywood, television soaps (no matter how trashy they may be) and cuisines that will also be minor triggers that catalyse the process
2. The incumbent government will go on from strength to strength, acquiring legislative muscle in the Rajya Sabha by edging out the erstwhile "thekedaars" or landlords of power. This power will help them push through radical reforms that we have so desperately yearned for
3. Indian bureaucracy will be shaken out of its reverie and will be forced to think out of the box. A corporate-style decision making process in the government will be initiated which will make policy matters consistent, durable and lasting
4. A general feeling of well-being and a hope in the future will gradually be rekindled as Indians realise their true potential. Economic activity will pick up, the investment cycle will revive and job markets will open up. Entrepreneurial opportunities will also grow on an improved sentiment
5. Growth in India will not be sustained unless the government steps in to pump-prime the economy. I predict massive investments would be initiated by the government in infrastructure, urban renewal, agricultural, social sector and heath care which will create opportunities for the private sector to establish a foothold, grow and thrive in virgin areas
6. India will make strong moves to emerge as the factory of the world with the "Make In India" initiative. So far, India's impressive GDP growth in the last two decades has primarily been on the back of us being a consumption-led economy. But the emergence of India as a manufacturing hub will be the real multiplier in the GDP growth - not only will this diversify our economic base, but it will make us more resilient to global shocks
7. The world appreciates potential but to be honest, it respects power. A resurgent India will emerge like phoenix on the world stage. Respect for India will grow as our foreign policy will show the world that we mean business and we mind our business. And our enemies must realise that if they take an eye, we'll take two eyes, no questions asked
8. The world and India will particularly be at risk of a potentially unnerving crude price increase a year or two down the line when the Saudis and other OPEC nations are forced to curtail oil production in a desperate attempt to balance their budgets. But I suspect India would start building strategic energy reserves - domestic and international. The Indian government will have to consider establishing a sovereign wealth fund to build these strategic assets abroad
9. India will recognise the importance and potency of flexing its soft-power muscles abroad. One dimension of soft-power is developing Indian brands on a global scale, say, to to become the next McDonalds, or the next Coke, or the next Google, or the next Honda. (No one can doubt the role the likes of Hollywood, Coke and McDonalds played in building America's soft-power globally in the 1960s till the mid-1990s (and it may sound counterintuitive but Marlboro, McDonalds and Coke evolved much beyond merely being brands, into cultural icons that took America into hearts and minds around the world). Besides promoting Indian economic interests abroad, India will make a concerted effort in promoting arts, culture, yoga, cuisine, tourism and Bollywood abroad to build sustained soft-power that can win over hearts and minds abroad for India's benefit
10. The Indian government will have to do its bit to help Indian corporations to grow to such a scale internationally that they are in a position to build global brands. India's track record on economic diplomacy so far has not been stellar as was evidenced in a muted response to the troubles the GMR Group faced in the Maldives. India will make concerted efforts in stepping its economic diplomacy paving the way for Indian companies to expand globally
11. India will emerge as a net-provider of security in the Asia-Pacific region, not only in the Indian subcontinent. India today is seen as a responsible and non-aggressive state which will make it a logical and trusted partner in any military and political alliance to counter expansionist, hegemonic and fundamentalist forces in the Asia Pacific region
12. With the possibility of a future oil shock on the distant horizon, the West will have to open up to Iran. The restoration of US-Cuban relations is an important precedent for their rapprochement with Iran. Such a rapprochement will help ease the pressure on Indian diplomacy besides helping us contain Pakistan indirectly through more open economic relations with Iran and overt alignment of interests in Afghanistan. India will play a key role in a US-Iran rapprochement and yes, a Israel-Iran rapprochement - this may sound like a fairy tale, but yes, the interests of India, the United States, Iran and Israel do converge in ways that are way beyond the obvious and do not exactly meet the eye
13. But any US-Iranian rapprochement would be severely opposed by the Arab states and this will in all probability unleash the next wave of global terror which India will have to be prepared to fight overtly, but more importantly covertly. We will see a massive scaling up of Indian hum-int (human intelligence) and e-eavesdropping operations besides building up physical capacity to launch covert, pre-emptive strikes to neutralise potential threats to India's interests
14. India will make concerted efforts to shape impressionable minds of young citizens who will build India's tomorrow. Values of national pride and civic sense will be inculcated in them from a young age. They will grow up with a sense of pride in the nation's achievements and will respect the sacrifices our founding fathers and our armed forces made for our today and future. Kids will grow with a keen interest in seeing India achieve its true potential, they will grow as socially conscious individuals and not indifferent citizens. The government's swachh Bharat (clean India) campaign is one such stellar example. I hope there will be more
15. Last but not the least, India will ensure security for 50% of its population, the female gender. India will never progress if our womenfolk are killed in the womb, abandoned, raped or burnt alive. We will learn from Chairman Mao Zedong that "women hold up half the sky". China too was obsessed with all things masculine, but it made economic strides only after they realised the role women can potentially play. They created the right conditions and their women held up their sky. There is no reason why Indian women won't do that

I hope all these trends start in 2015 and if they do, India will contribute significantly to not only its own development but also the entire world's...

May our collective wishes as a nation come true,  तथास्तु tathastu and happy New Year!

The Curse Of The Triple-63?

Scanning some news websites yesterday, I came across an interesting insight on the Triple-63.

This was on the Russian economy - President Vladimir Putin, the rouble and oil are all heading for a figure of 63. The president turns 63 in October 2015, oil is already trading at close to USD 63 per barrel, and the rouble (RUB) is rapidly losing its value to the dollar (USD) - it is currently at  RUB 53 per USD. Speculation is that the RUB is likely to slide to 63 by next year.

Thus the Triple-63...

While it does seem to be a good omen that oil is finally falling, is it really so?

For most of the OECD countries, winter is setting in and the demand should rise putting pressure on prices, a normal seasonality. That isn't happening...

For some reason, OPEC is letting oil slide, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia's budget balances at nearly USD 90 to a barrel. That is indeed surprising because Saudi Arabia is the most influential OPEC member. The plight of other OPEC members isn't much different....

Indeed the price fall puts enormous pressure on Iran to fall in line with the West on the nuclear deal. Venezuela will be forced to tone-down the anti-US rhetoric.
But what intrigues me is why the Saudis are letting this fall in oil prices happen?
The answer lies perhaps in the Triple-63 - the West would love to see Putin in a mess, after how Putin embarrassed the West in Ukraine and Crimea. They would take Russia to the brink for that indignation. And to achieve that, the West wouldn't have battled an eyelid before doing what they probably did, my sixth sense that they did...
Play the Saudis, let oil fall to unforeseen levels and let Russia collapse, economically.
They would have had a quid-pro-quo for this...
Two things come to my mind - a deal between the West and the Saudis to let oil rally, say triple in say 2 years, to help the Saudis make all the money they have lost.
Or the second, which is equally sinister, let the Jihadis have a free run.... (that serves the military-industry complex well!)
Both deals are equally devastating for the world and India from an economic and a security standpoint...
India should immediately get into long-term oil contracts to build an optimal oil basket that will help us weather the the coming oil-shock. Also we now have a government that can take terror by its horns... But the government has to act fast....
But if oil triples, markets will tank, economies will falter, but gold will be the safe bet. So I would prescribe SIPping on gold ETFs starting now....
But then what happens to Russia, where we started this discussion?
The joker in the pack is China. Desperate to establish itself as a world power, it will do all it can to prop up the Russians. It will all boil down to a game of wits between the West and Russia....
Will the Triple-63 be a boon or a curse for the world economy? Time will tell.

Iran and peace in Asia

These days, the National Geographic Channel is screening a series called "Don’t Tell My Mother I’m In…".

Don't Tell My Mother I’m In… shows what goes on in a war zone. The host Diego Buñuel goes on a behind-the-scenes journey through these countries with dubious reputations, including Pakistan, Iran and former Yugoslavia.

Iran was one of his fascinating journeys. Contrary to the notions most people have about Iran as being a backward looking fundamentalist state, Diego's show projected Iran as a progressive state. Unlike most Islamic states, women do seem to be empowered - where else in the Muslim world would you find women drivers?

How different is Iran from the rest of the Muslim world? If one were to draw a line across Asia, one would find only a handful of true democracies - Israel, Iran, India and Japan. The rest of them are regimes which are totalitarian, autocratic, propped up by the military or are benign dictatorships.

This is sharp contrast to the rest of the Muslim world - Pakistan or say, Saudi Arabia.

My measure of how liberal an Islamic state is, would be judged from the way the state treats its Jews. Jews in Iran, do seem to treated fairly well. Besides Diego's show, this was confirmed by Roger Cohen's column in The New York Times titled What Iran’s Jews Say.

Iranian Jews have representation in the Iranian parliament and freedom to follow their faith - Tehran has over 11 synagogues.

Wikipedia mentions Iranian Jews have their own newspaper (called "Ofogh-e-Bina"), Jewish scholars performing Judaic research at Tehran's "Central Library of Jewish Association". The "Dr. Sapir Jewish Hospital" is Iran's largest charity hospital of any religious minority community in the country.

Has Iran sponsored Islamic terror? No. Has Iran ever exported virulent Islam? No. Iran is very different from the rest of the Muslim world.

The relative liberalism of Iran is perhaps what is prompting the United States to extend them an olive branch.

In context of the present geopolitical situation in the region, the United States can have only three reliable partners in the region - Israel, India and Iran. It is perhaps the only functioning democracy in the Islamic world. A strategic partnership with Iran not only helps in moderating the virulent Islamic forces but also paves the way for energy security of the world.

India can play an important role in getting Iran and the United States to talk. India has an advantage of both geographical proximity as well as close bilateral relations with Iran. We can use this leverage to our benefit. Let's remember, getting the United States and Iran together makes the neighbourhood more secure for us - the United States can then focus solely on eliminating radical elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Getting Iran to the mainstream is the key to peace in our region.