Thursday, November 20, 2008

Will Obama rise to the challenge?

Hail Obama! The new president has been elected!

Obama has laid out his priorities very clearly - cleanse America of all its ills.

He has been riding a strong wave of popularity. And popularity brings with it a huge amount of expectations. And when the expectations are the highest, chances of under-performance are the highest, because there is and there always will be a big gap between the perceived expectation and the actual expectation on the street. Will he match the actual expectations and deliver is the big question... This gap is biggest cause of declining popularity of most rulers.

Obama has not had any administrative experience so far. And for being the head of state of any country - be it the United States or the Republic of Vanuatu, prior administrative experience is an absolute plus and a certain desirable. Obama does not have that at all.

And in politics, entrenched affiliations give the necessary leverage to take decisions that may often be unpleasant. Does Obama have that clout? I doubt it...

To make up for his administrative and political deficit, Obama is planning to appoint Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State. Hillary is a power-person in her own right. Will she ever accept Obama's authority? Won't she be tempted to create a power center of her own, undermining Obama's agenda?

And then measures to alleviate the economic pain may not be too pleasant for US conglomerates, which have entrenched lobbyists at the Capitol Hill. Won't these lobbies undermine his administrative actions?

And we can't ignore the most powerful industry of the United States - the war industry!!! Won't the armanent and defence industry oppose any move out of Iraq. Similarly, energy firms which have landed lucrative oil and gas contracts in Iraqi Kurdistan, will go all out to protect their turf.

Obama may be thinking right. But thinking and talking about the right thing and doing the right thing are two very different matters. And whether he would be able to maintain his popularity and survive as a successful President is the biggest doubt I have.

But for me, I will always miss Bush for his Bushisms and his unflinching support for the Indian nuclear deal. I doubt whether Obama could have pulled it off at all.

Would Mr. Obama perform? Let's answer this question, let's say, in an year's time...

2 comments:

Neeti said...

Bush will always be missed by India as one of the articles in the newspapers also admits it, no matter how he was for the US and the ROW..you r possibly right about Hillary being more popular and hence becoming a power center in herself..

Lets c how true is Mr. Nostradamus theory!!

BWPLOver said...

reWASD Keygen Thanks For sharing a nice and lovey post amazing I like your work and I apricate you

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