It is time for some Realpolitik!

It's common knowledge that good, pretty girls fall for the bad boys. Some perhaps know the dangers of falling for the bad boys, but still do and get hurt. Despite that, they fall head over heels all over again and again and again......, ignoring their misdemeanors and peccadilloes!
Perhaps living on the edge has an irresistible sex appeal that plain, steady guys can't match. They appear too dull and boring!
That seems to be the case with the United States's approach to our neighbourhood rogue, Pakistan. (The cartoon alongside , which appeared in the Crest edition of The Times of India, shows the opposite - America as the guy and Pakistan as the girl, with Manmohan Singh in the waiting, undoubtedly conveys the feeling that America is sleeping with the wrong partner!)
On October 4, 2010, the German newspaper, Der Spiegel, published something that we in India have known for ages. In an interview to the daily, the former Pakistani dictator, Pervez Musharraf, admitted to quite a lot - to using terror as an instrument of state policy, to using the armed forces to perpetrate terror, to the Talibanisation of Pakistani society, etc.
But the world had a muted reaction to the bad boy's admissions.
Clearly, the world prefers to turn a blind eye to what Pakistan is upto, be it export of terror or nuclear proliferation. Rather the United States perversely does encourage terror and proliferation by Pakistan by funding it, time and again that it seems like paying ransom to a kidnapper or "protection money" to a goon.
Surprisingly, India also preferred to be silent, or rather mumbled just a bit. The dictator's admissions should have been blown into a big issue by India. If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is truly the world statesman that he is made out to be, his world on Pakistan's should carry weight.
Sadly, the present administration in India lacks the guts to take any concrete geopolitical policy decision.
Now talking of the Obama administration, somehow, the recent policy decisions to move out of Afghanistan by 2011 gives me innumerable shivers. Not all in the world seem to understand Obama's urgency to pull out, especially when that very act could threaten American security.
Is Obama's pullout realpolitik or a mere fulfillment of an election promise? How is Obama's pullout policy justified? Has his ascent to power reduced the hatred the Islamic fundamentalists have for America? Have his Cairo speech and his Nobel Peace Prize brought about a change of heart in the Muslim world, have they made the world a safer place?
No one can answer these questions convincingly, that's my challenge.
The world remains as volatile as ever, no matter what Obama does to appease Pakistan, its fundamentalists and army, no matter how many Nobel Prizes he wins, no matter when he pulls out of Afghanistan.
Rather America's pullout from Afghanistan could potentially have undesired effects - turning Afghanistan-Pakistan into overt fundamentalist states relying fomenting extremism all over the world (just read about fundamentalism reaching Cambodia!), creating a vacuum that China would enter into altering geopolitical calculations adversely, and what not.
All these would adversely impact American interests the world over, probably accelerating America's fall as a great power.
Perhaps the best option if America has to pullout of Afghanistan would be to let Pakistan stew in its own juices - to capitalise on the hatred the Sindhis, Pashtuns, Punjabis and Balochs have for each other and carve up, break up Pakistan into 4-5 entities. Likewise for Afghanistan - breaking it up into Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara spheres of influence would buy us some time. A breakup would make terror an unviable, uneconomical option for these entities - they would be too small to survive, let alone support terror.

All this would have to be done with active support of the Americans, Iranians, Indians, Russians and the Central Asians. We surely can expect the Chinese to oppose this balkanisation.
Mr. Obama, it is time for some realpolitik!

Don't Bark Up the Wrong Tree....this time

Why is common sense so uncommon?

The answer to that will always remain elusive.

For me, common sense dictates that in view of the prevailing geopolitical situation in the Af-Pak region, Iran ought to play a larger role in stabilising the region, so does India, so does Russia.

And logically so, for Iran is very different from the fanatical Islamic world. It does remain a democracy with some (or a lot of) semblance of order, notwithstanding, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political coups and frequent rants against the West.

I had suggested about the West normalising its equations with Iran in my blog titled Iran and Peace In Asia, way back in April 2009.

The time for such a normalisation could not be more appropriate than today.

Russia, Iran and India, being in the proximity of Afghanistan have a geopolitical interest in that country that country that serves as a logical counterbalance to Pakistan's destabilising machinations in Afghanistan.

None of these three countries would like to see fanaticism seeping out of Pakistan at any cost. If it did intensify, going forward, these three countries have a lot to be worried about.

In a scenario where the United States and NATO were to pull out, the three regional forces can lend some semblance of stability to Afghanistan.

But as always, the United States and the West are barking up the wrong tree, by canoodling with the rogues in Pakistan, including the Army Chief, Ashfaq Kayani and the ISI Chief, Shuja Pasha. And this could have potentially disastrous results for the West in the next few years.

It is high time the United States woke up!

The Great Game, Version 2.0?

Today's New York Times carried an interesting article.
The news report suggested that the United States had discovered untapped, hitherto untapped mineral reserves in war torn, faction ridden and the US protectorate of Afghanistan.
It is speculated that these deposits of lithium, iron, copper, cobalt, gold, etc. are immensely huge and could sustain the industrial engine for years to come.
The report also quoted an internal Pentagon document which called Afghanistan the potential "Saudi Arabia of Lithium".
The report goes on to say that these deposits could be worth over USD 1 trillion.
Now this is interesting.
Would this discovery affect a potential US plan for the pullout of its forces following the recent surge? Would the powerful US military-industrial complex allow for a pullout, and loss of control on these resources? Would the five pillars of the military-industrial complex allow for that?

Outside the US, would this discovery lead to the second edition of the Great Game, the classical battle for the supremacy over Central Asia?
I wonder how would China respond to a potential US pillage in its neighbourhood?
And what would be security implications of resource triggered US-Sino conflict in Central Asia?

Surely, security analysts will have to keep a close watch on what happens. India has to calibrate its security policy keep in mind the possible scenarios that this discovery could trigger?

An Agenda for Continuity

Today, the grand old man, Mr. L.K. Advani had a few valuable suggestions on the way our political system could be organised. His pearls of wisdom included compulsory voting, elections only once in 5 years and that too in February when the weather is salubrious, with a view on improving turnouts. Even though I do not support Mr. Advani in his desperate urge to become the Prime Minister, I agree with him totally on these ideas.

A few days back, Dr. Manmohan Singh also gave some invaluable suggestions - like limiting the role of regional parties and independents in the electoral process.

I agree with both of them completely. These are the only words of sanity coming in the cacophony of the ongoing electoral process.

I would be a little radical on this.

We are increasingly going to play an important role in the world theatre. The Doomsday Scenario is playing out. Whether we like it or not, India is reluctantly going to be drawn into a conflict with both Islamic fundamentalists across the western borders and in Afghanistan. We cannot rule out a high intensity conflict with the Chinese.

The scenario will play out in the next 20-odd years. In this evolving war theatre, the nation is going to be stretched for able political minds to strategize for the future - to not only ensure our survival but success as a nation.

To ensure effective and sane governance, we would need a legislation that defines on who gets to occupy key berths in the Union Cabinet. For instance, the defence ministry should go to a distinguished ex-serviceman, external affairs to an ex-diplomat, finance ministry to an economist, etc. We have in the past picked up people who have no damn clue what they are supposed to do in these mission-critical ministries.

Visualise a scenario where the Behenji or the likes of Deve Gowda become the Prime Minister. These people have no world view and have a myopic a vision of where as a nation would stand. Their parochial politics would make them Prime Ministers of Uttar Pradesh or Karnataka, as the case may be.

Such a legislation would ensure continuity of rational policy, which would give India the much required decoupling from political instability and parochialism.

Is it possible?

Yes, it is indeed.

The institutions like the Reserve Bank of India gives us a glimmer of hope that independent minded institutions can thrive for the good of the nation.

But the big question is whether the Congress and the BJP would get together to make it happen.

Shoes Are In Fashion!

Sometime back when Bush was hit by shoe during a press conference in Iraq, we thought it was a one off incident.

But this week, we had two shoe-throwing incidents at home, which shows that this is as viral a phenomena as globalisation.

So when Mr. Chidambaram had a shoe hurled at him, people couldn't wonder thinking which brand it was? A Reebok? An Addidas? Anti-globalisation activists must surely be happy - it was very own, home-grown, desi, Action shoe.

And the size, I wonder what that was. Bush was quick to observe that was a No. 10 shoe. But poor Chidambaram , unlike Bush, he barely showed any wit!!! Guess its because it has been ages since he's worn a shoe. He after all prefers chappals, with his lungis! He seems to be woefully out of touch with shoe sizes and brands.

Certainly, with elections just around the corner, there will be many shoe-hurling opportunities coming our way. Which means that this is boomtime for the shoe-making industry with a good domestic potential. And the export market is also huge - global hotspots like Iraq, Gaza, West Bank, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe, etc. should be on the shoe-makers' radar screens for exports.

And with such a huge global market for low-cost shoe-makers in India, Mr. Chidambaram and his cabinet colleagues better announce an incentive package for shoe-makers and exporters. There will be many "anti" voices, many would petition the Election Commission that is violation of the election code of conduct.

But in this recession, which other industry has such a great potential?

That's why I say, shoes are back in fashion, as the new WMDs (I meant Weapons of Mass Defiance!!!). Thank Jarnail Singh for that!

The Doomsday Scenario....

About a month back, I had written about the scenario of the Taliban taking over Pakistan and the emergence of Talibanistan on our western borders - the blog was titled Talibanistan.

The scenario is getter truer by the day.

Today's edition of The Hindustan Times had this full page feature titled "Talibanistan" taking about the real possibility of the Taliban taking over the entire Pakistani territory.

The article presented a few scenarios, including the one on the right of this text.

A pretty scary scenario indeed.

Be assured, the United States would bleed more in Afghanistan in the next few years. The financial pain at home would force them to pull out.

And what could be worse is that we will find ourselves unwillingly in the eye of the storm, at the epicenter of the Third World War.

As we look into the crystal ball at the way the scenarios would pan out, our preparedness to cope is in question.
How do we prepare ourselves to cope with all this?

Increased defence spending is a great idea, provided the increased budgets go into military hardware and also into building electronic and human intelligence networks. Our defence forces are undoubtedly skilled, but if we don't have the intelligence, we might fail miserably. Networking with other intelligence agencies would be critical for this. I believe this has already started. A pointer to this is the recent visit by the CIA chief, Leon Panetta, to India.

Military conscription has to be started immediately - we a need a readily available supply of trained personnel who can be called in at short notice to defend us against aggressors.

Civilian capability to withstand such a doomsday scenario has to be built. Ex-servicemen can be employed for this task. Such a preparedness would in handy ensuring the support systems don't collapse in the event of a surprise attack. We can learn from Israel about this.

I may be called a hawk for visualising a doomsday scenario, but we would be better off being prepared for it rather than get taken by surprise.

The Buddha is Grinning!!!!

In 1974, immediately after India conducted its first nuclear test, the message that our then Prime minister received was that "the Buddha has smiled".

But today, the Buddha is grinning...

Ending 34 years of the nuclear apartheid, the NSG has finally given its waiver. A great job done, a feat achieved. I must admit, I am no fan of the UPA government or the Congress party. Till a few months back I used to think that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government is being run by a remote control. I felt sorry for him, as he, I thought, was a misfit in his role as the PM.

However, the cool confidence with which PM and his team has handled the case was impeccable and has proved that Indian diplomacy has finally come of age and India as a superpower is truly in the making. Hats off to you and your team, Mr. PM!

However, the deal is not merely what it seems. What we see today may just be the tip of an iceberg.

Why has the US done all this for us? 10 years back, it would have been tough to imagine US and India going to bed this way. So what has changed in these 10 years would give us clues on why the deal went through.

The US has lost hope in Afghanistan and Pakistan -- it seems that the US is getting around to the idea that there is no point in hoping against hope. With energy prices on the boil, the US can perhaps ill afford to continue to sustain heavy expenditure both on energy and its military campaigns in the Middle East and our neighbourhood.

The bottomline is that the US needs friends here. India is perhaps the only nation that fits the bill -- India has some economic as well as a military prowess that can help the objectives of the US in the region.

Further, despite the fact that for decades, successive Indian governments were cozying up with the Soviets and took pride in being non-aligned, the Indian public largely identified themselves with the US. This is evidenced from the fact that recent surveys which have in fact proved that Indians actually appreciate the US -- only citizens of a dozen or so countries share the same feeling. The rest -- citizens of the remaining 170-odd independent countries either hate the US or just don't care. So domestic public opinion in India will not be an issue.

The US cannot trust the Chinese any more -- the US and China were together all these years for business. But today, with the Chinese successfully make inroads into governments of key US allies -- Australia, New Zealand and a few European countries, the US is genuinely and justifiably terrified. Never has the US needed a counterweight to China more than today.

The nuclear deal brings India and US into a de-facto military and economic alliance (the CENTO of the 60s will be reborn, with Japan, Singapore and other ASEAN countries also being a part of it!). Now that the US has done its bit, India would have to reciprocate -- my idea is that India would be required to police the Indian Ocean shipping routes from the Persian Gulf right upto Straits of Malacca and from Diego Garcia right up to the Andamans, thereby giving India a control of flow energy and commodities to China.

The US would also leverage on India's relationship with Tehran to get Tehran to open up. Despite all rhetoric, Iran by far has been and is the most stable nation in the Middle East. The US needs energy, Tehran is the potential supplier and India can get them talking.

On the commercial side, the nuclear deal opens up a whole new opportunity for US hi-tech companies to expand into a virgin territory for dual-use technology. And in this too, India is a huge market, especially when it has the third largest army in the world. India gets the required military hardware that it needs to stand up to China.

A win-win for both the US and India. India never had it better, the Buddha is surely grinning!!!