The Chessboard Is Set!

As I had been predicting for long, today, Asia looks like a stage perfectly set for another version of the great game.

The last two months have been peppered with small developments all over Asia that signal a significant undertones of the evolving great game.

China has been threatening Indian vessels - both naval and exploratory vessels operating in the South China Sea, off the Vietnamese coast, which is claimed by China as its own fiefdom, ignoring the rights of the littoral states that abut the sea. Vietnam and Philippines have also faced the brunt of Chinese aggression in the region. By that logic, the entire Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal is our area, and wouldn't it be sane to boot the Chinese from its upcoming bases and listening posts in Myanmar (Coco Islands) and Sri Lanka.

Another signal of capitulation was the American denial of advanced F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan - that is despite the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 which obligates the United States to provide weaponry for defence of Taiwan against the obvious aggressor. Instead the Americans dangled an offer to upgrade Taiwan's aging F-16 fleet. It appeared that the United States capitulated under Chinese pressure. Was there a quid-pro-quo - the United States gives up in return for Chinese economic support?

But then Japan, the United States, Australia and India revived the idea of a dialogue on regional security. It is understood from the press that India expressed its discomfort in participating in the dialogue given the mistrust that Australia had shown towards India by denying us uranium supplies. The Rudd doctrine seems to have been given the boot by Julia Gillard, in an unprecedented, but pragmatic move.

Australia because of its strong regional presence has an important role to play, India knows that and would be willing work alongside the Australians. The major irritant, uranium, would hopefully be dealt with, but public opinion in India could be a deciding factor, for there has been simmering anger over continued racist attacks against Indian diaspora in Australia.

But then baby steps are being taken and some military exercises are being planned.

Within India, not only in the north, but also in the south, there is a great public anxiety over the Chinese military build-up on the northern borders. The government has to get its act together to equip the forces in the north with infrastructure and armaments. We need fighter squadrons and mountain battalions in these regions. India, according to the defence journalist, Shiv Aroor, is likely to test fire the Agni V missile, with a range that covers the whole of China and beyond.

India off late has given the Chinese more than enough signals that we would not capitulate. Deepening ties with Vietnam have led to speculate that it emerge as "India's Pakistan" vis-a-vis China. I doubt that personally, but certainly we can work together in an alliance.

Defence buys from the United States are increasing. That without question, as history has proved, lays the foundation for military alliances.

The Chinese will certainly be irritated with the Americans and the Australians with the opening of the Darwin military base, one of America's biggest bases in the region. The first brick of the alliance has been laid.

China has economic and military might, but at the same time its conduct has made it appear demonic in the region, laying to rest all that talk about the "peaceful rise". If such conduct continues, Asian powers with the United States will coalesce into an Asian NATO. India should not shy away from partnering the United States, Australia, Japan, Vietnam and other powers here in the region, as Chinese provocation would not abate any time now. That was obvious when the Chinese Ambassador to New Delhi, Zhang Yan, asked an Indian journalist to shut up when being questioned about an inaccurate depiction of the Indo-Tibetan border. If the Chinese provocation continues, we do have the Tibetan card to play.

The next 15 years will, undoubtedly, be very interesting. The strategies will play out on this vast chessboard that stretches from the Red Sea to the Pacific. Its a big question as to who would checkmate whom!

But the big questions today are quite a few. Is the ostrich is finally taking its head out of the sand? Is finally India finally playing a strategic game or is it still making unconnected tactical moves?

Free Tibet, Now!!!!

Today, a newspaper carried a short story on a little girl in Hyderabad, who claimed to have met the Dalai Lama in her "previous life" and is convinced Tibet will be free by 2012!!!

I wish, I pray, I hope that happens!

But, it is a tough going for Tibetans and their supporters.

The Dalai Lama and his people have been living in India for over 50 years, peacefully. Is that why we have forgotten them?

How could we forget that Tibet was a free nation when India gained independence? How can we forget that we have had a deep cultural intercourse with a culturally and politically independent Tibet for centuries?

Can we afford to ignore the gruesome human rights abuses in Tibet that China has been perpetrating for over 60 years. And what about the steady decline of Tibetan population within China-occupied Tibet? Who has spoken about the concerted effort by the Chinese to promote a steady influx of ethnic Hans into Tibet, which threatens the very Tibetan heritage?

How can the Indian establishment be so weak to ignore all this?

We seem to be living in denial.

We supported the anti-Apartheid struggle in South Africa, liberation movements in Rhodesia and Namibia, de-facto independence of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (Western Sahara) and Palestine. How is Tibet different? All that moral high ground India seemed to adopt is symptomatic of our directionless, opportunistic and reactionary foreign policy.

We, as a nation, suck up to those wielding power, first it was the Soviet Union, then the United States. And it's China now?

No one in our establishment seems to care.

And what about the United States? They are no different. It obvious that they are not interested in this cause because Tibet does not seem to have oil or natural gas. I believe their policy will change overnight, if these resources are discovered in Tibet.

It is a selfish world and Tibet is a forgotten cause that seems to matter little in this world.

Sad, but true.

As the enslaved Jews in Babylon used to say "Next year in Jerusalem" to keep their hopes alive, the Tibetans should also keep their hopes alive and should works towards independence.

Who could have even imagined in 1988 that the Soviet Union would break up by 1991? It happened in 3 years flat.

2012 is only 3 years away and I hope the little girl's oracle comes out true.

And I wish I could visit the Potala Palace in Free Tibet, before I die.......

Taking on the Dragon

A few days back, I had written about The Great Game being played. The Great Game is an advanced form of conflict, a new-age Cold War confrontation.
India, in order to face this kind of conflict, needs to evolve a new strategic doctrine covering our nation's long term security, foreign affairs and economic policy. We cannot, cannot, afford to look at any of these policies in isolation any longer, any more. We need to know what our interests are, very clearly - that's the first step to evolving a doctrine. As Henry Kissinger had said "There are no permanent friends or foes in diplomacy, only permanent interests."

India's security policy for long has been Pakistan-centric. But it has become very obvious in the recent past that the real danger lurks somewhere else. And that threat is spreading slowly but surely, like a malignant cancer, all around. That threat is China.

But sadly. our strategy has been to downplay all the moves that China makes. I was appalled by the statements from the army chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor, the National Security Advisor, M.K. Narayanan and the Prime Minster that these were not major incidents.

We need to accept the situation, we should not downplay, but we should not create a hype - it is a delicate balance that our strategic minds need to maintain.

But we should, silently, prepare towards building a military strength and capability to counter the Chinese. Towards this, we could learn a bit from Sun Tzu, the Chinese philosopher and author of "The Art of War", who said "In peace prepare for war, in war prepare for peace."

To be in a absolute readiness for war or peace, as the case may be, we need a co-ordinated approach between the administration, diplomats, intelligence agencies and the armed forces. We need to evolve and institutionalise a think-tank of opinion-makers in these fields to strategise and deliberate on various war and peace scenarios. The government then needs to merely implement the capability measures that would be distilled by the think-tanks. This would also delink the strategic thought from petty party politics.

Sun Tzu also said "If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles... if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle"

To know our enemies, we need credible intelligence. Developing a capability for intelligence gathering is most critical. Intelligence experts still rue the gradual demobilisation of human intelligence (humint) networks that India had within Pakistan and other neighbours during Mr. I.K. Gujral's days as prime minister. Mr. Gujral's fascination for anything sarhad paar has cost dear and made us incapable of gathering even the basic intelligence. We need to build humint again, in Pakistan and also, more importantly, in China. Why can we use Tibetans for that?

Besides humint, India should also look at e-espionage in a big way. We are a country full of geeks and we can build on that knowledge. Quite a few Indian companies have entered the Chinese and other markets. Surely Indian spies can enter these countries undercover as employees of these countries to snoop on them. India needs to build intelligence gathering capabilities in China, extremely fast. We can learn a lot from Israel on humint, afterall Mossad has been very effective in gathering intelligence in a hostile environment.

Military capability building is the next step. It is well known that India has for long relied on Soviet and Russian military hardware. That served us well for all these decades. But the Admiral Gorshkov episode (India's acquisition of a mothballed Russian aircraft carrier) has proved that we cannot bank on the Russians alone to built our capability. We need to diversify our supply base, in order to avoid arm-twisting.

In a sense, the Indian establishment has recognised that. The pointers for this come from the Indian Air Force's order for the European Airbus A330 multi role tanker transport (MRTT), despite having the Russian Ilyushin IL78 in its fleet. Subsequent orders for the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft and the Poseidon P-8I naval reconnaissance planes, both of which are American products, have driven the point home in Russia that India cannot be taken for granted. We need to realise that the Russian armament industry is in doldrums and we can surely get a good bargain. The Russians are watching us closely now. They are prepared to offer India a license for manufacturing Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighters. They are also likely to bargain hard for Indian Air Force's tender for the supply of 126 multi role combat aircraft.

India's bid to diversify the military supply options could put it on a different plane in its relationship with Washington. It remains a fact that defence contractors are big lobbies on Capitol Hill. And we can leverage on these lobbies to our advantage to gain American support for other significant issues.

The Indian defence establishment needs to focus on building a military capability spanning the globe, this crucial for protecting Indian economic interests worldwide. Towards this end, India needs to develop an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capability fast. Thankfully now, America would be amenable to making dual-use technology available to India. India must also leverage on its relationship with Israel for availing technology and furthering joint development of advanced armaments.

There is a limit to which a superpower can rely on others for capability. We need to provide more funds to take defence research projects ahead. Ultimately, there is nothing like self-dependence.

Undoubtedly a successful military alliance complements internal capabilities. India should know that the days of the Non-Aligned Movement are over, finally, good riddance, I would say. Now India should take a lead in rallying an Asian alliance to counter China. The alliance was talked about about 5 years back, but died a premature death, with regime changes in Australia.

Across Asia, there are quite a few nations that have a deeply ingrained mistrust towards China. Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Singapore are among them. We need to forge a military alliance with them, with America providing back-stop guarantees as well as a nuclear umbrella.

We need to send a strong signal to China by taking up the Tibetan cause as well as supporting Taiwan's bid for the membership in international fora. India's handling of the Tibetan issue has been a classic case of hypocrisy and double-speak, so far, after the grand Nehruvian blunder in 1959. Our support for the Tibetan issue can unsettle the Chinese establishment, which we should leverage on. Tibet is a trump card India has against China.

A military alliance in Asia, closer ties with Taiwan and support for the Tibetan cause would be the tiger's roar in response to the string of pearls that the Dragon is making.

Last but not the least, we need to lobby hard to get into the United Nations Security Council at the earliest, in order to achieve diplomatic parity with China. We American help for this, it would be tall order to do it solely. To achieve unequivocal support from Washington on this, the defence lobbies in Washington would be a big help, for which doling out defence contracts to the likes of Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop, etc. at regular intervals would help.

We can take on the Dragon, surely and successfully. The only condition for this is careful planning and flawless execution.... Let's do it!

The Great Game ...

A few years back, the then Defence Minister of the NDA government, George Fernandes created quite a furore when he stated that China was India's enemy No. 1. Was he wrong?

On the face of it, trade between India and China is booming. Indian IT companies are entering the Chinese market. Indian manufacturing companies are poised to leverage on China's low cost manufacturing. We are too happy to import anything Chinese. We apparently crossed the Great Wall, ever since Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's Beijing visit in 1988.

On the other hand, India remains the only country with whom China has not moved an inch for resolving the border disputes in Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. China has still not recognised Sikkim's amalgamation into India. Every now and then, whispers are heard of Chinese incursions across the border and ensuing skirmishes. Very recently, there was a news on an evacuation from Nathu-la. A major skirmish was suspected. There was complete silence from officials.

And if you think these are small insignificant incidents, then sample this. China has followed a policy of encircling India, creating a "string of pearls". It is building a naval presence In Myanmar. It has set up a "listening" station in the Coco Islands of Myanmar, to snoop on India's missile test site in Orissa and ISRO facilities at Sriharikota. Not too much is known about the two deep-water ports being constructed by China at Kyaukpyu and Sittwe. Undoubtedly, these strategic assets can be used against India if the need arises.

Sri Lanka has been a significant recipient of Chinese military aid to help it fight the LTTE, while India looked the other way (though it is rumored that Indian military strategists and intelligence assets were readily made available to the Lankans). Further, the Chinese are building a port at Hambantota, in southern Sri Lanka. This is suspected to be a naval base and fuel bunkering facility for the Chinese.

Chinese involvement in Nepal is well known, so is their de-facto alliance with Pakistan. The Chinese have been heavily investing in the development of the Gwadar port in Baluchistan which is strategically located at the head of the oil tanker routes in the Persian Gulf and is rumoured to be a future naval base. Their investments in Gwadar would give them not only energy security but also an opportunity to choke oil supplies to India.

It is also suspected that when Pakistan decided to go nuclear immediately after their 1971 debacle, the Chinese not only did help provide (read: proliferate) nuclear technology to build the bomb, but also allowed the Pakistanis access to their Lop Nor nuclear test site in Xinjiang, much before India went overtly nuclear in 1974. Such support is continuing till date. Hasn't China signed the NPT?

Arming the Pakistani military was always a non-issue for the Chinese. The Chinese have apparently facilitated the transfer of North Korean missile technology to Pakistan, which was the foundation of the Pakistani IRBM programme.

The Chinese have also built the Karakorum Highway right from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir into Xinjiang. This undoubtedly is a strategic asset for both countries - China gets a road access to Pakistani ports in the Persian Gulf while all-weather road transport facilitates Pakistan's easy access to heavy-duty Chinese military hardware. China has very smartly propped up Pakistan, as a constant threat, a constant pin-prick to keep India occupied to further its agenda of dominance.

China is also focussing on building a strategic relationship with Bangladesh, along similar lines.

China has played quite a dubious role in promoting insurgency movements in the North-East as well as the Maoist and Naxal movements all throughout the mineral rich areas of eastern and central India. It is a clear attempt of weakening India from within, an act of war, which we have failed to recognise till date.

A few weeks back, on August 8, 2009, newspapers here covered an article, authored by Zhong Guo Zhan Lue Gang, which appeared on a Chinese website (http://www.iiss.cn/) captioned 'If China takes a little action, the so-called Great Indian Federation can be broken up'. The article which been analysed on rediff.com clearly talked about breaking India into 20-30 pieces.

Clearly, the Chinese are following Deng Xiaopeng's doctrine of "Keep a cool head and maintain a low profile. Never take the lead - but aim to do something big." They appear to be overtly warm and friendly but do not spare any opportunity to undermine India.

Talking of undercutting, Chinese intentions became crystal clear when the Indo-US nuclear deal was being culminated and the Nuclear Suppliers Group was considering the US sponsored India-specific waivers. The Chinese all along indicated their support but started dithering just before the vote. It took a desperate phone call from the then US President George W. Bush to the Chinese President Hu Jintao at 1 AM Washington time to get the Chinese on board.

Chinese lobbies worldwide have been fairly active in supporting the grand objective that China has. Australia under Prime Minister John Howard was quite eager to start uranium supplies to India. However, John Howard was succeeded by Kevin Rudd, who has been experiencing an orgasm with China, as he has himself said!!!! Now Kevin Rudd had been a relative unknown on the Australian political theatre and his election was marked with controversies of Chinese funding benefiting him directly! Australian blogs have sarcastically been calling Rudd a Mandarin Chinese!

Now Rudd did a complete U-turn on assuming office - he stymied all attempts to sell uranium to India citing a stand of non-proliferation. He tries to project an image of maintaining a moral high ground, but his actions are quite suspect. On whose insistence is Rudd taking this stance? I think we have sufficient clues on this.

The scramble for resources has led both India, China and other powers into Africa. The Chinese have very often outbid all other competitors. Very often this has achieved by bribing successive regimes. If the incumbents do not oblige, the Chinese arm insurgents. The Chinese have had quite a success in acquiring such assets, but their subsequent actions and attitudes towards the locals have brought fears of a second round of imperialism. This has happened in Zambian copper mines and tin mines in the Congo, besides other African countries. Chinese "neo-imperialism" has been well covered in the international press, including the The New York Times.

Why is China playing the Great Game to outbid, outsmart and keep India on its toes?

The answer lies within China.

China is a multi-ethnicity rag-tag union held together with an iron fist. The recent Uighur unrest in Xinjiang and the Tibetan protests in 2008, which were spontaneous but heartfelt, indicate a very strong undercurrent which would erupt at any moment the fist loosens.

That is precisely what the Chinese establishment is scared of. It needs to keep the economic miracle running. This can be sustained only by gobbling up whatever resources are available.

India can possibly be the only challenge that China faces for dominance in Asia. "How can India (despite being a multi-"ethnicity" country still thrive?" is a question that bothers the Chinese establishment. It therefore has to prove a point that India is a horrible example to look up to. This is a point which has to be proved at any cost. And Pakistan, Bangladesh, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) do the job well for the Chinese establishment.

India, in a sense, can also be called a multi-ethnicity union. But the difference lies in the a benevolent governance here unlike an iron fist. While there is discontent from time to time, every "ethnicity" does get a voice, is heard and issues do get sorted out.

That is something which is hugely comforting, but is not enough till the Great Game is on. Sadly, few Indian governments have ever recognised the Great Game.

The Chinese philospher Sun Tzu had said "For, to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill." China is doing just that.

The Great Game is an all out war, without combat, without war being declared. George Fernandes recognised this fact.

India needs to recognise that the Great Game is being played.

India needs to evolve a set of carefully calibrated strategies to play Great Game. I would be talking of some of these strategies in my subsequent blog posts.