The Doomsday Scenario....

About a month back, I had written about the scenario of the Taliban taking over Pakistan and the emergence of Talibanistan on our western borders - the blog was titled Talibanistan.

The scenario is getter truer by the day.

Today's edition of The Hindustan Times had this full page feature titled "Talibanistan" taking about the real possibility of the Taliban taking over the entire Pakistani territory.

The article presented a few scenarios, including the one on the right of this text.

A pretty scary scenario indeed.

Be assured, the United States would bleed more in Afghanistan in the next few years. The financial pain at home would force them to pull out.

And what could be worse is that we will find ourselves unwillingly in the eye of the storm, at the epicenter of the Third World War.

As we look into the crystal ball at the way the scenarios would pan out, our preparedness to cope is in question.
How do we prepare ourselves to cope with all this?

Increased defence spending is a great idea, provided the increased budgets go into military hardware and also into building electronic and human intelligence networks. Our defence forces are undoubtedly skilled, but if we don't have the intelligence, we might fail miserably. Networking with other intelligence agencies would be critical for this. I believe this has already started. A pointer to this is the recent visit by the CIA chief, Leon Panetta, to India.

Military conscription has to be started immediately - we a need a readily available supply of trained personnel who can be called in at short notice to defend us against aggressors.

Civilian capability to withstand such a doomsday scenario has to be built. Ex-servicemen can be employed for this task. Such a preparedness would in handy ensuring the support systems don't collapse in the event of a surprise attack. We can learn from Israel about this.

I may be called a hawk for visualising a doomsday scenario, but we would be better off being prepared for it rather than get taken by surprise.

Will we ever mature?

There are moments in history which are points of inflection.... when the attitudes change for the positive to help the nation emerge stronger, confident and unified.

It's well known that most of us, common Indians, thought that the 26/11 attacks on Bombay was such an event that would define our destiny.

But it seems that we are back to square one.

Just today, there was this news of a likely fidayeen hijack threat at all airports. Heightened security is the highlight of the day with panic all over. Chidambaram quickly goes on air to say that it's a false alarm and before we realise. Is he required to say all that so soon? Couldn't that have been a red herring?

And our media trumpets this news on the headlines, as a cheap thrill! Can't the media be more mature and show a little more restraint? This is really too much.

And then, our cricked crazed population was up in the arms when the government did not permit Lalit Modi to proceed with the Indian Premier League (IPL). Mr. Modi who went cribbing about this decsion should realise that IPL isn't larger than the nation. Was that maturity?

I think that was a brilliant decision on the part of the government. Look at this - the Taliban are knocking on our doors and we need not only defend borders, provide internal security but also let the elections happen peacefully, to ensure that policy making - on the security and economic front doesn't come to a standstill. In such a volatile scenario, can we let the security apparatus get distracted by some IPL happening around the country? Maybe India would lose some revenue from the IPL this year, but we would be better off by having a peaceful election in the months to come. It's a pity we, as a society, are not mature enough to realise that.

And then, to top it all, Chidambaram terms communalism as the root cause of all terrorism. And the old man in a hurry (to become Prime Minister), Mr. Advani, is quick to give a scathing reply back. we are being done in by these petty politicians. Isn't it high time for all these grand old men to act mature and send out a signal that we stand as one against terror rather than blame each other. Let's not forget that it was Chidambaram's gang that supported the LTTE and Bhindrawale. And everyone knows who unleashed terror on the streets of Delhi in 1984 after Mrs. Indira Gandhi was assassinated. And wasn't it Mr. Advani's party's duty to soften the cherub Varun's statements? Is this what we call political maturity?

I suspect our inflection point is yet to come.... that would force us to mature as a society...

India's new neighbour - Talibanistan

As we thought we had enough shocks for 2009, another one strikes, though not quite out of the blue.

The Doomsday Scenario is playing out - today, Amritsar is geographically closer to the Taliban than Delhi. Yes, its true, the Taliban are inching closer to the Indian frontier, by taking control of Pakistani territory, inch by inch. And sooner than we expect, we would have to deal with the Taliban. And soon, we will have a new neighbour to deal with, to add to our list of painful neighbours - Talibanistan!

Our options are limited as a country. We are being pushed into a corner - the way Israel has existed for the last 60-odd years.

What do we do? Talk to the Pakistanis? Will it help? No, not at all. When Zardari said he expects Taliban to take control of the country any time soon, it is evident, he controls nothing but his presidential palace. There is no point in talking to him.

What about the Americans? Obama has spoken about eliminating Al-Qaeda, focusing on Af-Pak, etc. etc. But given the economic situation prevailing in the US, it might be tempting for Obama to cut spends by moving forces out of Af-Pak. We can't bank on the US to be on our side, given the poor economics of their presence in Af-Pak.

Our options are limited - we have to deal with this menace ourselves. After taking over Pakistan, the Taliban will turn their eyes on India for sure. And that's real bad. That really would the first real threat that India would face since its independence for the Taliban threatens the Indian way of life, our free speech, our economic independence. And we can't let it happen.

We need to boost our defences all along the Western borders - that is obvious. But more importantly, we have to break the enemy from within. For that, our intelligence has to break in to the Taliban to understand their plans better. Then we would need to deflect their attention from our borders. We should attempt to build resistance within Pakistan against the Taliban. The Baluchis and the Sindhis are certainly are not pleased with the Punjabi-Pashtun nexus and are likely to play ball against the Taliban.

All along I had my reservations on the way successive governments in Delhi had handled Pakistan. But Manmohan Singh's A-team of Chidambaram and Pranab has proven that they have the will not only to talk tough but also act. I hope they have the threat that Talibanistan poses to India in their minds and they act on it.