Did Geronimo Have a Cadillac?

The other day, the world's most wanted man, Osama bin Laden was smoked out from his "rat hole" and hunted down by the US Navy Seals in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in an operation called "Operation Neptune's Spear", "Jackpot" being Osama's code while "Geronimo" was Osama's code in death!
Now that rang a bell - yes, there was a Modern Talking song called Geronimo's Cadillac - a popular song that reminded me of the heady 1980's! But the Geronimo of today's world is not about innocence of the 1980's, not about Cadillacs in any case!
While there is little doubt that the very thought of Osama bin Laden had terrorised the world for a little over than a decade now and he ought to have been brought to justice, Operation Neptune's Spear leads us to ask a number of unanswered questions.

Did the Operation Neptune's Spear really take place or was it another "wagging the dog" incident? That was the first thought that came to my mind when I read about the operation.
Questions on the complicity and competence of the Pakistani Army and the ISI were raised following the incident. I believe this was a grand show put up by both the United States and Pakistan. It is plausible that while the United States had been on the trail of Osama, Pakistan ensured that the "strategic asset" lived on safely, despite his kidney condition, in an army garrison town, with above-par medical facilities, and also ensured the "strategic asset" was fattened and kept ready for the slaughter.
The timing of the operation itself was a big give-away - the United States government barely averted a shutdown as the Grand Old Party and the Democrats clashed over the Budget and Obama's popularity waning.
With elections coming up in 2012, Obama needed to show some action, he needed to prove he was at least as muscular as Dubya Bush.
So, as Obama announced he is to run for the 2012 election, the Seals took off from Jalalabad, the Pakistanis turned off their radars, the Pakistani soldiers in the garrison went off into a deep slumber (or, were they "drugged"?) while the bombing was happening. And finally the Seals flashed the message - Geronimo EKIA.
It suits Pakistanis to feign ignorance now and put up a rant against the United States, while Obama walks with the "dubious claim" of eliminating terror!
Osama was terror, but terror is not Osama alone. So the myth that the world is a safer place now may soon be shattered as al-Qaeda is still not eliminated, it may live on despite Obama's feat, and would threaten the world again to prove that they are a potent force. That does not augur well for the world.
We cannot harbour unrealistic expectations today, rather have to be pragmatic today. India has tried to ride this wave and has demanded action that others on the wanted list be handed over. Pakistan will never mend its ways - you cannot teach an old dog new tricks. There is no incentive for the United States to fight for India. We cannot attack a nuclear adversary, so we go covert - fund and arm the Baluchis and Sindhis, get them to eliminate the Pakistanis on our most wanted list and also to break Pakistan from within.
Now coming back to the Geronimo story - Geronimo was a native Indian leader in the 1800s who opposed American expansionism into Apache lands, got taken as a prisoner of war, his terms of surrender were not honoured and died in 1909. It is ironic that the United States which grew on the back of expansionism and elimination of natives today preaches the world on terror.
Obama (or Geronimo) has gone, but did he have Cadillac? He sure did have a SUV fleet in Abbottabad!

Old Wine, New Bottle...

I have never been a fan of Obama.
My status messages on Facebook during the US elections, a couple of months where I had expressed my concerns on Obama and his policies attracted a lot of attention, and of course angry criticism from friends.
I had often argued, with these people that Obama is too much of an idealist. He seems to to be far detached from reality. He is undoubtedly a great orator, but there's more it than making good speeches.
He started off by projecting that America under him will be different for the rest of the world. but he's falling into a trap that the United States has been falling into for the last 2-3 odd decades. Pakistan continues to blackmail and coax the United States in funding their nefarious and sinister activities.
Obama started off on a "moral" high-ground by wowing to shut down Guantamano Bay, or Gitmo as it is often called, where suspected 9/11 detainees and other hard-core Islamic terrorists had been held. If hard-core terrorists are to be released, isn't the United States shooting itself in the foot? It was also reported that a released Gitmo detainee found his way back to Pakistan, preaching militant Jihad.
Obama also proposed to shift these detainees to high security prisons within the United States which led to a virulent reaction within the country. Quite a few states refused to accept these detainees. There was nasty debate within the political system, between Dick Cheney on the Republican side and the democrats on the other.
And now, in an article titled "Palau to Take Chinese Guantánamo Detainees", The New York Times reports that a Pacific island archipelago nation, Palau has agreed to accept the Gitmo detainees. Who is going to guarantee the security of these prisons? Does Palau have the wherewithal to do that? What prevents al-Qaeda from getting these detainees freed? If that happens, who'll suffer?
The obvious answer is the United States.
Obama has long advocated transparency in methods adopted to deal with terror suspects. He declassified CIA documents but then turned around and refused release photographic evidence of abuse. So much for transparency, Obama has also been called President Flip-Flop by, again, The New York Times. Other examples of his flip-flop on gay rights, abortion, etc. have also been well documented.




Obama reached out to Iran, in a speech on Navroze. Obama reached out to the Muslim world in Cairo a few days ago. But he has to understand that symbolism of beginning speeches with Asalaam Waleikum and talking of his Muslim heritage is not good enough. He has to understand that well-researched speeches are not good enough. He has to understand Hot-Dog Diplomacy is not enough.
Obama needs to go high on substance. He needs to go high on action. He needs to separate the wheat from the chaff in Muslim world. he needs to know whom to back in the military world. Is he doing a great job by backing despots in Pakistan, Iraq, etc.?




North Korea tested a nuclear warhead a few days back. That was met by muted, whimper of reaction from the United States. Why? Wasn't Obama supposed to take a stand from a morally high ground? The answer is simple. A reaction against North Korea would have invited a swift and brutal reaction from the Chinese. Wasn't Obama scared of that?
Obama's weaknesses and abilities have been very well understood by the Americans in general. No wonder, the Wall Street Journal has been talking of Obama's plummeting popularity ratings, which is regarded as measure of the Administration's success.
As far as India is concerned, Obama is yet to find the true co-ordinates. By the time, he figures out what India is, a good 2-3 years of Administration would have gone by. By then, Obama would have lost considerable leverage in India.
Obama promised America, and the world, a whiff of fresh air, but sadly, what we've got is stale Old Wine in a New Bottle...

India's new neighbour - Talibanistan

As we thought we had enough shocks for 2009, another one strikes, though not quite out of the blue.

The Doomsday Scenario is playing out - today, Amritsar is geographically closer to the Taliban than Delhi. Yes, its true, the Taliban are inching closer to the Indian frontier, by taking control of Pakistani territory, inch by inch. And sooner than we expect, we would have to deal with the Taliban. And soon, we will have a new neighbour to deal with, to add to our list of painful neighbours - Talibanistan!

Our options are limited as a country. We are being pushed into a corner - the way Israel has existed for the last 60-odd years.

What do we do? Talk to the Pakistanis? Will it help? No, not at all. When Zardari said he expects Taliban to take control of the country any time soon, it is evident, he controls nothing but his presidential palace. There is no point in talking to him.

What about the Americans? Obama has spoken about eliminating Al-Qaeda, focusing on Af-Pak, etc. etc. But given the economic situation prevailing in the US, it might be tempting for Obama to cut spends by moving forces out of Af-Pak. We can't bank on the US to be on our side, given the poor economics of their presence in Af-Pak.

Our options are limited - we have to deal with this menace ourselves. After taking over Pakistan, the Taliban will turn their eyes on India for sure. And that's real bad. That really would the first real threat that India would face since its independence for the Taliban threatens the Indian way of life, our free speech, our economic independence. And we can't let it happen.

We need to boost our defences all along the Western borders - that is obvious. But more importantly, we have to break the enemy from within. For that, our intelligence has to break in to the Taliban to understand their plans better. Then we would need to deflect their attention from our borders. We should attempt to build resistance within Pakistan against the Taliban. The Baluchis and the Sindhis are certainly are not pleased with the Punjabi-Pashtun nexus and are likely to play ball against the Taliban.

All along I had my reservations on the way successive governments in Delhi had handled Pakistan. But Manmohan Singh's A-team of Chidambaram and Pranab has proven that they have the will not only to talk tough but also act. I hope they have the threat that Talibanistan poses to India in their minds and they act on it.