Incredible IFE, Enroute To CDG...

This has been quite an interesting flight so far!

I've watched two movies so far - Ab Tak Chappan 2 - the Nana Patekar thriller on the politician-Mafia nexus and the Liam Neeson thriller, Taken 2. A hearty chicken steak with sautéed spinach, mushrooms and polenta on the side was packed somewhere in between with a couple of glasses of plain tomato juice, which I prefer for its tanginess and low sugar content.

We flew in a north westerly direction south of Saurashtra and Karachi and flew over Pakistan somewhere in between Karachi and the port city of Gwadar. And soon the stark and barren landscape of Balochistan lay below us. Hard to imagine that this stark, weather scarred landscape does yield such substantial bounties - natural gas and minerals. But it is ironic that the benefits of being Pakistan's richest province haven't really percolated down to the fiercely independent and self-respecting Balochis, who have been at the receiving end of history for over 60 years now.

Then we flew right over Iran - Yazd, Isfahan and Tehran just short of the magical Caspian Sea. I had been longing for years to see the Caspian Sea, which is in a sense a cradle of human civilisation and is home of the prized Caspian Sea beluga sturgeon caviar, which any foodie will treasure more than a Swiss bank account! But l was despondent when I realised that we flew a couple of hundred kilometres short of the largest inland sea!

But as they say every disappointment leads to an unexpected moment, an unanticipated surprise.

We soon flew over the confluence of Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. And as we crossed Yerevan, the Armenian capital, we got a magnificent view of Mount Ararat!

People say that this is the same mountain associated with Biblical traditions, the mountain where Noah's Ark rested after the giant flood. The snow capped mountain peak was clearly visible as the skies were amazingly clear without even a hint of a haze.
In Armenian mythology Mount Ararat is the home of the Gods and in the modern-era, the mountain symbolises Armenian national identity - it figures on the Armenian coat of arms and on banknotes. The mountain dominates the skyline of Armenia's capital, Yerevan.

In a few hours, we crossed Turkey and overflew the Black Sea and entered Europe over the Bulgarian and Romanian coasts. I had a whale of a time capturing the lovely sights out of my window. The first thing I would do after checking in at the hotel at Gare de Lyon would be to upload these pics on my public Facebook album, Cloudscapes, dedicated to everything Up In The Air!

That's when the next magical moment happened. I spotted a Jet Airways Boeing 777, headed to London Heathrow, flying a thousand feet below us, on the right. That was indeed an incredible moment. It is very rare for a passenger to spot another aircraft in the air and get to capture it on camera, and I feel very blessed I saw it.

As we get ready to descend into CDG, I realised that this was probably the best real inflight entertainment (IFE) I ever had!

15 Trends For 2015... तथास्तु Tathastu!

"Get your hopes up.

Raise your expectations.

Your best days are still in front of you"

-- Joel Osteen

A new year has dawned on us. 2015 is finally here, and I am attempting to play soothsayer. 

I am attempting to predict the trends that will define India and the world in 2015 and beyond...

1. India will start getting a lot more homogenised from now on. Regional differences will fade away as a relic of the past, as India will unite in a new dawn of economic prosperity. Other cultural aspects like Bollywood, television soaps (no matter how trashy they may be) and cuisines that will also be minor triggers that catalyse the process
2. The incumbent government will go on from strength to strength, acquiring legislative muscle in the Rajya Sabha by edging out the erstwhile "thekedaars" or landlords of power. This power will help them push through radical reforms that we have so desperately yearned for
3. Indian bureaucracy will be shaken out of its reverie and will be forced to think out of the box. A corporate-style decision making process in the government will be initiated which will make policy matters consistent, durable and lasting
4. A general feeling of well-being and a hope in the future will gradually be rekindled as Indians realise their true potential. Economic activity will pick up, the investment cycle will revive and job markets will open up. Entrepreneurial opportunities will also grow on an improved sentiment
5. Growth in India will not be sustained unless the government steps in to pump-prime the economy. I predict massive investments would be initiated by the government in infrastructure, urban renewal, agricultural, social sector and heath care which will create opportunities for the private sector to establish a foothold, grow and thrive in virgin areas
6. India will make strong moves to emerge as the factory of the world with the "Make In India" initiative. So far, India's impressive GDP growth in the last two decades has primarily been on the back of us being a consumption-led economy. But the emergence of India as a manufacturing hub will be the real multiplier in the GDP growth - not only will this diversify our economic base, but it will make us more resilient to global shocks
7. The world appreciates potential but to be honest, it respects power. A resurgent India will emerge like phoenix on the world stage. Respect for India will grow as our foreign policy will show the world that we mean business and we mind our business. And our enemies must realise that if they take an eye, we'll take two eyes, no questions asked
8. The world and India will particularly be at risk of a potentially unnerving crude price increase a year or two down the line when the Saudis and other OPEC nations are forced to curtail oil production in a desperate attempt to balance their budgets. But I suspect India would start building strategic energy reserves - domestic and international. The Indian government will have to consider establishing a sovereign wealth fund to build these strategic assets abroad
9. India will recognise the importance and potency of flexing its soft-power muscles abroad. One dimension of soft-power is developing Indian brands on a global scale, say, to to become the next McDonalds, or the next Coke, or the next Google, or the next Honda. (No one can doubt the role the likes of Hollywood, Coke and McDonalds played in building America's soft-power globally in the 1960s till the mid-1990s (and it may sound counterintuitive but Marlboro, McDonalds and Coke evolved much beyond merely being brands, into cultural icons that took America into hearts and minds around the world). Besides promoting Indian economic interests abroad, India will make a concerted effort in promoting arts, culture, yoga, cuisine, tourism and Bollywood abroad to build sustained soft-power that can win over hearts and minds abroad for India's benefit
10. The Indian government will have to do its bit to help Indian corporations to grow to such a scale internationally that they are in a position to build global brands. India's track record on economic diplomacy so far has not been stellar as was evidenced in a muted response to the troubles the GMR Group faced in the Maldives. India will make concerted efforts in stepping its economic diplomacy paving the way for Indian companies to expand globally
11. India will emerge as a net-provider of security in the Asia-Pacific region, not only in the Indian subcontinent. India today is seen as a responsible and non-aggressive state which will make it a logical and trusted partner in any military and political alliance to counter expansionist, hegemonic and fundamentalist forces in the Asia Pacific region
12. With the possibility of a future oil shock on the distant horizon, the West will have to open up to Iran. The restoration of US-Cuban relations is an important precedent for their rapprochement with Iran. Such a rapprochement will help ease the pressure on Indian diplomacy besides helping us contain Pakistan indirectly through more open economic relations with Iran and overt alignment of interests in Afghanistan. India will play a key role in a US-Iran rapprochement and yes, a Israel-Iran rapprochement - this may sound like a fairy tale, but yes, the interests of India, the United States, Iran and Israel do converge in ways that are way beyond the obvious and do not exactly meet the eye
13. But any US-Iranian rapprochement would be severely opposed by the Arab states and this will in all probability unleash the next wave of global terror which India will have to be prepared to fight overtly, but more importantly covertly. We will see a massive scaling up of Indian hum-int (human intelligence) and e-eavesdropping operations besides building up physical capacity to launch covert, pre-emptive strikes to neutralise potential threats to India's interests
14. India will make concerted efforts to shape impressionable minds of young citizens who will build India's tomorrow. Values of national pride and civic sense will be inculcated in them from a young age. They will grow up with a sense of pride in the nation's achievements and will respect the sacrifices our founding fathers and our armed forces made for our today and future. Kids will grow with a keen interest in seeing India achieve its true potential, they will grow as socially conscious individuals and not indifferent citizens. The government's swachh Bharat (clean India) campaign is one such stellar example. I hope there will be more
15. Last but not the least, India will ensure security for 50% of its population, the female gender. India will never progress if our womenfolk are killed in the womb, abandoned, raped or burnt alive. We will learn from Chairman Mao Zedong that "women hold up half the sky". China too was obsessed with all things masculine, but it made economic strides only after they realised the role women can potentially play. They created the right conditions and their women held up their sky. There is no reason why Indian women won't do that

I hope all these trends start in 2015 and if they do, India will contribute significantly to not only its own development but also the entire world's...

May our collective wishes as a nation come true,  तथास्तु tathastu and happy New Year!

Pax Indica - Still A Long Way Off

Last week, Hillary Clinton achieved a rare but significant milestone. When her US Air Force C-32A touched down at Andrews Air Force Base outside Washington, after a 13-day journey through France-Afghanistan-Japan-Mongolia-Vietnam-Laos-Cambodia-Egypt-Israel. She, as Secretary of State, has spent 351 days travelling to 102 countries and has flown a whopping 843,839 miles or 1,358,027 kilometers. That's more than 3 times the distance from Earth to the Moon!

That is the importance that the United States gives to its foreign policy. They prefer to hover over and intervene when necessary. 

Closer home, China, too, is far too proactive in diplomacy. A clear pattern is emerging. China would diplomatically engage with countries that can give it energy security, right of access to natural resources, shipping lanes and technology. China makes its clout felt by emerging as a "significant" lender to governments across the globe, including the United States. China has been a big force in Africa and the Pacific. While their African gameplan has emerged clearly, I would imagine they are cultivating relationships with tiny Pacific islands to get access to the mineral-rich seabed, obtain shipping rights and develop military bases within the next 20-30 years.

In contrast, Indian foreign policy follows the classic "Bury your head in the sand" ostrich syndrome. Don't acknowledge any problem till it becomes too big to ignore and when it does, look for an easy face-saver. And when the situation is normal, when there is no crisis, engage in armchair diplomacy.

Numbers clearly show the rot that is setting in - India has less than 700 diplomats spread across the headquarters in New Delhi, 119 resident missions and 49 consulates around the world. This compares very poorly with other nations in the G-20. Brazil has 1,197 diplomats. The biggies in the list are United States has 19,667 diplomats. Germany has 3,250 and the UK has 3,600 diplomats. I suspect China too would have at least 2-3 times the number of diplomats we have.

It's sad that India pays lip service to foreign policy. We have a "rehabilitated" gentleman at the helm of foreign affairs who is more concerned about his own genteel looks rather than the way India is perceived abroad. His former deputy has just completed a book "Pax Indica" on his years in the foreign service, but   sadly in his stunted term he could do little to give us the stature that we deserve in the minds of foreigners as an upcoming superpower. (I am yet to get my copy of Pax Indica.)

A classic failure of India's foreign policy has been the Iran standoff. India should have and could have maneuvered itself into the position of a mediator, for we have good relations with both Iran and the United States. But our heads were buried in the sand, as always.

Come to think of it, India has immense potential for soft power, something that I had written about in July 2010, that can be capitalised on by our foreign office to the benefit of India. The way to a credible and sustainable foreign policy that straddles the world and serves India's long term geopolitical, security and strategic interests is through the hearts of foreigners. To achieve that, Indian foreign service has to reach out - it should have the budgets to expand its numbers and reach. And the foreign minister has to build bridges - he should drive Indian interests abroad. But with the little focus India's polity has on foreign affairs, it is too much to expect our foreign minister to log even a mere 5 percent of what Hillary does.

Asking for a credible foreign policy from such a political structure that is far too self-serving and concerned about mere survival is just too much. We just lack that vision.

I presume the term Pax Indica is akin to Pax Americana, a term that has come to denote the influence that the United States arising out of its military and economic clout in relation to other nations. A quick reality check would reveal we are nowhere close! Pax Indica is still a distant dream.

Don't Bark Up the Wrong Tree....this time

Why is common sense so uncommon?

The answer to that will always remain elusive.

For me, common sense dictates that in view of the prevailing geopolitical situation in the Af-Pak region, Iran ought to play a larger role in stabilising the region, so does India, so does Russia.

And logically so, for Iran is very different from the fanatical Islamic world. It does remain a democracy with some (or a lot of) semblance of order, notwithstanding, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political coups and frequent rants against the West.

I had suggested about the West normalising its equations with Iran in my blog titled Iran and Peace In Asia, way back in April 2009.

The time for such a normalisation could not be more appropriate than today.

Russia, Iran and India, being in the proximity of Afghanistan have a geopolitical interest in that country that country that serves as a logical counterbalance to Pakistan's destabilising machinations in Afghanistan.

None of these three countries would like to see fanaticism seeping out of Pakistan at any cost. If it did intensify, going forward, these three countries have a lot to be worried about.

In a scenario where the United States and NATO were to pull out, the three regional forces can lend some semblance of stability to Afghanistan.

But as always, the United States and the West are barking up the wrong tree, by canoodling with the rogues in Pakistan, including the Army Chief, Ashfaq Kayani and the ISI Chief, Shuja Pasha. And this could have potentially disastrous results for the West in the next few years.

It is high time the United States woke up!

Old Wine, New Bottle...

I have never been a fan of Obama.
My status messages on Facebook during the US elections, a couple of months where I had expressed my concerns on Obama and his policies attracted a lot of attention, and of course angry criticism from friends.
I had often argued, with these people that Obama is too much of an idealist. He seems to to be far detached from reality. He is undoubtedly a great orator, but there's more it than making good speeches.
He started off by projecting that America under him will be different for the rest of the world. but he's falling into a trap that the United States has been falling into for the last 2-3 odd decades. Pakistan continues to blackmail and coax the United States in funding their nefarious and sinister activities.
Obama started off on a "moral" high-ground by wowing to shut down Guantamano Bay, or Gitmo as it is often called, where suspected 9/11 detainees and other hard-core Islamic terrorists had been held. If hard-core terrorists are to be released, isn't the United States shooting itself in the foot? It was also reported that a released Gitmo detainee found his way back to Pakistan, preaching militant Jihad.
Obama also proposed to shift these detainees to high security prisons within the United States which led to a virulent reaction within the country. Quite a few states refused to accept these detainees. There was nasty debate within the political system, between Dick Cheney on the Republican side and the democrats on the other.
And now, in an article titled "Palau to Take Chinese Guantánamo Detainees", The New York Times reports that a Pacific island archipelago nation, Palau has agreed to accept the Gitmo detainees. Who is going to guarantee the security of these prisons? Does Palau have the wherewithal to do that? What prevents al-Qaeda from getting these detainees freed? If that happens, who'll suffer?
The obvious answer is the United States.
Obama has long advocated transparency in methods adopted to deal with terror suspects. He declassified CIA documents but then turned around and refused release photographic evidence of abuse. So much for transparency, Obama has also been called President Flip-Flop by, again, The New York Times. Other examples of his flip-flop on gay rights, abortion, etc. have also been well documented.




Obama reached out to Iran, in a speech on Navroze. Obama reached out to the Muslim world in Cairo a few days ago. But he has to understand that symbolism of beginning speeches with Asalaam Waleikum and talking of his Muslim heritage is not good enough. He has to understand that well-researched speeches are not good enough. He has to understand Hot-Dog Diplomacy is not enough.
Obama needs to go high on substance. He needs to go high on action. He needs to separate the wheat from the chaff in Muslim world. he needs to know whom to back in the military world. Is he doing a great job by backing despots in Pakistan, Iraq, etc.?




North Korea tested a nuclear warhead a few days back. That was met by muted, whimper of reaction from the United States. Why? Wasn't Obama supposed to take a stand from a morally high ground? The answer is simple. A reaction against North Korea would have invited a swift and brutal reaction from the Chinese. Wasn't Obama scared of that?
Obama's weaknesses and abilities have been very well understood by the Americans in general. No wonder, the Wall Street Journal has been talking of Obama's plummeting popularity ratings, which is regarded as measure of the Administration's success.
As far as India is concerned, Obama is yet to find the true co-ordinates. By the time, he figures out what India is, a good 2-3 years of Administration would have gone by. By then, Obama would have lost considerable leverage in India.
Obama promised America, and the world, a whiff of fresh air, but sadly, what we've got is stale Old Wine in a New Bottle...

Iran and peace in Asia

These days, the National Geographic Channel is screening a series called "Don’t Tell My Mother I’m In…".

Don't Tell My Mother I’m In… shows what goes on in a war zone. The host Diego Buñuel goes on a behind-the-scenes journey through these countries with dubious reputations, including Pakistan, Iran and former Yugoslavia.

Iran was one of his fascinating journeys. Contrary to the notions most people have about Iran as being a backward looking fundamentalist state, Diego's show projected Iran as a progressive state. Unlike most Islamic states, women do seem to be empowered - where else in the Muslim world would you find women drivers?

How different is Iran from the rest of the Muslim world? If one were to draw a line across Asia, one would find only a handful of true democracies - Israel, Iran, India and Japan. The rest of them are regimes which are totalitarian, autocratic, propped up by the military or are benign dictatorships.

This is sharp contrast to the rest of the Muslim world - Pakistan or say, Saudi Arabia.

My measure of how liberal an Islamic state is, would be judged from the way the state treats its Jews. Jews in Iran, do seem to treated fairly well. Besides Diego's show, this was confirmed by Roger Cohen's column in The New York Times titled What Iran’s Jews Say.

Iranian Jews have representation in the Iranian parliament and freedom to follow their faith - Tehran has over 11 synagogues.

Wikipedia mentions Iranian Jews have their own newspaper (called "Ofogh-e-Bina"), Jewish scholars performing Judaic research at Tehran's "Central Library of Jewish Association". The "Dr. Sapir Jewish Hospital" is Iran's largest charity hospital of any religious minority community in the country.

Has Iran sponsored Islamic terror? No. Has Iran ever exported virulent Islam? No. Iran is very different from the rest of the Muslim world.

The relative liberalism of Iran is perhaps what is prompting the United States to extend them an olive branch.

In context of the present geopolitical situation in the region, the United States can have only three reliable partners in the region - Israel, India and Iran. It is perhaps the only functioning democracy in the Islamic world. A strategic partnership with Iran not only helps in moderating the virulent Islamic forces but also paves the way for energy security of the world.

India can play an important role in getting Iran and the United States to talk. India has an advantage of both geographical proximity as well as close bilateral relations with Iran. We can use this leverage to our benefit. Let's remember, getting the United States and Iran together makes the neighbourhood more secure for us - the United States can then focus solely on eliminating radical elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Getting Iran to the mainstream is the key to peace in our region.